Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for NFL Week 18.
As a quick recap, we've been tracking the against-the-spread (ATS) records of unlucky teams in a matchup if the game meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage that's at least 50% worse than their opponent.
In addition, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 116-66-6 (63.3%) ATS since the start of 2018.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 2-2 to the under last week, making the record 29-18-1 (61.5%) to the under this year and 123-84-3 (59.3%) over the last six years. There were no Luck Overs last week, so they remain 36-18-1 (66.4%) to the over in the last six years including 6-1 this year.
There are three games that meet either the matchup or total criteria for Week 18. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 18
This is the lone Luck Matchup of Week 18 with the Panthers sitting at 32nd in our Week 18 Luck Rankings while Tampa Bay is fourth for a Luck Difference of 28 and Luck Gap of 26.6%.
We can consider this a valid signal since the Panthers have normal motivation in this game. Tanking won't help Carolina as it's already locked into the No. 1 pick in the draft, a pick it has already traded to the Bears. This is a spot for Panthers players to play their best and knock off a division rival.
Unlucky teams with a Luck Difference of at least 24 in Luck Matchups after Week 13 where motivation is normal, which means eliminated teams not tanking or playoff teams not resting players, are 24-3-2 (86.2%) ATS over the last six years.
In addition, if the Luck Gap is at least 25%, unlucky teams with normal motivation are 6-3-1 ATS in the final week of the regular season.
Pick: Panthers +4.5 (PointsBet)
The Luck Total of -8.3 is the lowest of Week 18, making this game a Luck Under.
There are some conflicting signals here, though, as Luck Totals below -7.5 after Week 9 are just 10-12 (45.5%) to the under, potentially indicating a reverse signal. That said, this is also the second time these two division rivals have played, and Luck Unders in second meetings are 20-10 (66.7%) to the under in these spots.
Pick: Under 47 (PointsBet)
Luckily for bettors, the final game of the regular season does involve some strong luck trends to back.
The Luck Total of -5.7 makes this game a Luck Under in the sweet spot. Games with a Luck Total between -5 and -7 after Week 10 are 26-15-2 (62.3%) to the under
Like the Cowboys and Commanders, this game is another featuring two division rivals are meeting for the second time in the season, meaning the 20-10 (66.7%) trend to the under applies here, as well.
Pick: Under 48.5 (FanDuel)
