The use of trends to find an edge betting on the NFL can lead to heated debate. Some bettors find no value in past results while others feel they can be a key indicator of what’s to come.
With eight teams losing by double digits in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, we’re now seeing inflated spreads for Week 2 due to overreaction and subsequent overcorrection of odds.
However, did you know that since the start of the 2014 season, teams that lost by at least 10 points in Week 1 have covered the spread 62.9% of the time in Week 2?
According to BetLabs, there have been 62 instances of teams losing by double digits in Week 1. Those teams are 39-22-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 2 regardless of spread. They also win straight-up (SU) 51.6% of the time (32-30).
Here’s the year-by-year breakdown of the last nine seasons with this trend:
| Year | Straight-up | Against the Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6-0 (100%) | 5-1 (83.3%) |
| 2021 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| 2020 | 2-6 (22.2%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| 2019 | 3-4 (42.9%) | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| 2018 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 4-2 (66.7%) |
| 2017 | 5-5 (50%) | 6-4 (60%) |
| 2016 | 1-2 (33.3%) | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| 2015 | 5-2 (71.4%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| 2014 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 5-2 (71.4%) |
Total: 32-30 SU | 39-22-1 ATS
For a more in-depth breakdown of the 2022 sample, there were seven teams that fit this criteria. Here’s how each game played out:
| Team | Week 2 Score | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots (-2.5) @ PIT | 17-14 NE | Win |
| Jets (+6.5) @ CLE | 31-30 NYJ | Win |
| Packers (-10) vs. CHI | 27-10 GB | Win |
| Cardinals (+3.5) @ LV | 29-23 ARI | Win |
| Cowboys (+7.5) vs. CIN | 20-17 DAL | Win |
| Rams (-10.5) vs. ATL | 31-27 LA | Loss |
Weeks 2 Betting Targets
Although this trend has been tried and true for the last eight seasons, it forces bettors to consider either bad teams to do well or good teams to bounce back in Week 2.
- Texans (-1.5) vs. Colts (HOU lost 25-9 @ Ravens)*
- Colts (+1.5) @ Texans (IND lost 31-21 vs. Jaguars)*
- Panthers (+3) vs. Saints (CAR lost 24-10 @ Falcons)
- Bengals (-3.5) vs. Ravens (CIN lost 24-3 @ Browns)
- Steelers (+1.5) vs. Browns (PIT lost 30-7 vs. 49ers)
- Seahawks (+5.5) @ Lions (SEA lost 30-13 vs. Rams)
- Bears (+3) @ Buccaneers (CHI lost 38-20 vs. Packers)
- Giants (-4.5) @ Cardinals (NYG lost 40-0 vs. Cowboys)
*Off the bat, we have a conflict with the Colts and the Texans. As a result, we’ll remove that game as it doesn’t help or hurt the trend.
For the remaining games, in theory, four of six of these teams should cover the spread and nearly three will win outright. I wouldn’t necessarily endorse a blind-betting strategy with this trend, but it’s fascinating.
Bonne Chance!
