We have two 5-0 SU teams left in the NFL and they are both on byes this week. Which means the storylines shift to the numerous home dogs, rookie QBs and so much more.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 6 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 9, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Foot Long
Big Underdogs Start Quick
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 11-8 SU and 16-2-1 ATS (89%) through five weeks — covering the spread by 7.8 PPG.
This is the first time since 1960 dogs of 6+ are over .500 SU thru 5 weeks, with also the best ATS win pct.
Dogs of 6+ are 11-8 SU through five weeks. For comparison, dogs of 6+ were 4-16 SU through five weeks last year and were 27-109-1 SU (20%) between 2019-23 through the first five weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.
Dogs Are Home
Record in Week 6
We have ten games with home underdogs in Week 6 of the NFL.
If we close with ten, it would be tied for the most in a single week since 1972 – the only week in the Super Bowl era we had more than 10 home dogs. The last week with ten came back in Week 17 of 2020. We haven’t had a week with 10+ home dogs before Week 10 since Week 4 of 2004.
The Good and The Bad
Jets Move on From Saleh
The New York Jets fired Robert Saleh after their loss in London vs. Vikings. 38 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-21 straight up (SU) and 22-16 against the spread (ATS).
Those teams had a 100-256-3 SU record (28%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 132-221-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.
The Jets will try to become the 3rd team to make playoffs with an interim coach with 2021 Raiders and Rich Bisaccia and 1961 Oilers and Wally Lemm.
Since 2000, 12 head coaches have been fired within the first five games of the season, including Robert Saleh this year. Those teams are 6-5 SU and ATS, including 5-2 SU and ATS since 2010.
Rookie Life
Starting Early
Through five weeks, Rookie QBs are 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS. It is the 2nd-most combined wins by rookie QBs in the first five weeks of a season in history, only trailing 1987. Since Commanders/Bengals on MNF, rookie QBs have won and covered 7 straight games.
Last year, rookie QBs started 3-8-1 ATS through four weeks and 5-9-1 ATS through five weeks of the season.
Daniels is the third rookie quarterback since 1950 to start and win four of his team’s first five games, joining Joe Ferguson from 1973 with Buffalo and Dak Prescott from 2016 with Dallas.
Ice Cold
Public Bettors Struggle
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 28-46-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $2,056 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.
Public by week:
+ Week 5: 6-8 ATS
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Low, Low, Low
Totals Hit Bottom
How low is too low? A few very low totals on the board this week. NFL totals of 37 or less are 33-12-1 (73%) to the under since 2020.
Tight Lines
Small Spread Early Season
The average point spread for an NFL favorite through four weeks is sitting around -4.0 PPG this season. That is the lowest mark for any season through the first five weeks since 1960.
There has been only one double-digit favorite this week, the fewest through five weeks in the Super Bowl era.
Undefeated Rest
5-0 Teams On Bye
The Minnesota Vikings are the story of the NFL through five weeks. They are 5-0 SU/ATS full game. 5-0 SU/ATS in first half, 5-0 SU/ATS in the 1st quarter and their team totals are 5-0 to the over. The 2024 Vikings and 2007 Patriots are the lone teams to start a year 5-0 SU/ATS and 5-0 1H ATS in the last 20 years.
Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a preseason win total of 6.5. The only teams since 1990 to start 5-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos and 1999 Rams.
The Chiefs are also 5-0 SU. In the last 20 years, they are the 5th team to start 5-0 SU as reigning champions.
2024 Chiefs 5-0 SU
2019 Patriots 8-0 SU
2015 Patriots 10-0 SU
2011 Packers 13-0 SU
2007 Colts 7-0 SU
The Chiefs joined the 1990 49ers as the only teams in NFL history to start 5-0 after winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
Every NFL Game For Week 6
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➤In recent matchups, San Francisco has dominated Seattle. They’ve won five straight, winning by double-digits in 4 of those 5 games.
➤In divisional games where both teams are on short rest, favorites and road teams have had the advantage ATS – with favorites 98-79-5 ATS and road teams 99-77-5 ATS last 20 years.
➤Thursday home teams are just 40-52 ATS since 2019, including 36-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
➤The 49ers are 7-2 ATS on the road vs. NFC West since 2022, but they’ve started the season 0-1 ATS on the road, losing to the Rams. They haven’t lost consecutive games ATS on the road vs. NFC West since 2021.
➤In his career, Brock Purdy has played in 11 night games, he is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS – which includes a 2-1 SU/ATS mark on the road. Both of his road primetime wins have come against the Seahawks (he’s 2-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West in night games).
The positive for Purdy as well is his success on short rest, he’s 5-2 SU/ATS in his career, but lost in Week 2 this year against the Vikings.
➤Purdy is 17-15 ATS in his NFL career. When he’s favored by 4 pts or more, he’s 9-13 ATS, when he’s favored by 3.5 pts or less or an underdog, Purdy is 8-2 ATS.
➤Purdy is 6-4 ATS vs. NFC West opponents and just 11-11 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
➤On the other hand, Geno Smith has struggled mightily in this spot.
He is 3-10 SU, but 9-4 ATS in night games with the Seahawks and Jets – Geno has been favored in just two of those games. As an underdog, Geno is 2-9 SU as an underdog in primetime.
In the same vein, Geno is 3-9 SU on short rest in his career, that is the 4th-worst mark of 218 QBs on the moneyline over the past 20 years.
➤Even after the poor performance against the Giants, Geno Smith is playing like a top QB so far this year. 10th EPA/play, 2nd success rate, 10th in CPOE, 1st in total pass yds and 1st downs.
More importantly, he’s also 5th in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate and 7th in CPOE on 1st and 2nd downs, helping Seattle try and avoid 3rd downs (20th in NFL).
➤Geno Smith is 11-17-2 ATS as a favorite in his career and 22-18-2 ATS as an underdog.
Of Geno's 11 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, Geno is 2-9 ATS in his career.
As a dog, he’s struggled a bit lately, going 4-8 ATS in his last 12 games in the spot
➤Historically, being a home dog has been an advantage in Seattle. They are 25-14-1 ATS as home dogs since 2003, including 11-4 ATS in the first two months of the season.
➤Dating back to December of last season, the 49ers have lost six consecutive games ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, going 2-4 SU in those games, with the two wins coming in the playoffs vs. Packers and Lions.
➤Kenneth Walker’s impact in Seattle can’t be overstated.
In his career with Seattle, the team is just 6-10 SU when he doesn’t play or gets fewer than 10 carries and in the 23 games he’s received 10+ carries, they are 15-8 SU.
➤Seahawks and Browns allowed a ton of sacks in Week 5. History says to continue to fade them. Teams after allowing 7 sacks or more are 94-122-6 ATS (44%) last 20 years, including 11-21-1 ATS last three seasons.
➤Cardinals, Ravens and Broncos are coming off 10+ pt comeback wins last week.
Teams coming off a 10+ pt comeback in their previous game, are 86-84 SU, but 73-96-1 ATS (43%), including 93-75-2 to the under in their next game since 2020.
➤A few facts and trends from the 46 total international games:
- The under has a small edge at 25-21
Wembley: 14-11 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 1-0 to the under
Corinthians: 1-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 5-4 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 35-10-1 straight up and 31-15 against the spread. Favorites at Tottenham: 4-5 ATS. All other international stadiums: 27-10 ATS.
The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%-plus of tickets in international games are just 22-23 ATS, including going 4-9 ATS in the last 13 international games since the pandemic.
Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 25-7-1 SU, 21-12 ATS.
Only 5 international games have seen teams open as dog and close at -1.5 or higher. Those teams are 5-0 SU/ATS – that would include the Bears this week if they close there.
➤Caleb Williams will be the 7th rookie QB to start in an International Series game and the first since Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
Those six QBs are 1-5 SU and ATS, with 4 of the 6 QBs losing by 14+ points.
2021 Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. MIA, +2.5 W 23-20
2021 Zach Wilson, Jets vs. ATL, +3, L 27-20
2019 Gardner Minshew, Jaguars vs. HOU, -1 L 26-3
2017 Deshone Kizer, Browns vs. MIN, +11 L 33-16
2014 Blake Bortles, Jaguars vs. DAL, +7.5 L 31-17
2014 Derek Carr, Raiders vs. MIA, +4 L 38-14
➤The Bears have covered the spread in 5 straight games as a favorite, all at home, all under a 5-pt favorite mark.
Bears last covered 5 in a row as favorites back in 2018 and they haven’t covered six in a row as favorites since 1994-95.
➤Caleb Williams has started his NFL career 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.
Since the merger in 1970, only 1 of 33 QBs taken 1st overall has won and covered their first three starts as a favorite: Eli Manning. Eli won his first four starts SU/ATS as a favorite before losing his 5th.
➤The Bears defense has been nothing but consistent.
Montez Sweat arrived in Chicago for Week 9 last season. Bears were 5th in EPA/play defense in Week 9 on, they were 30th Weeks 1-8.
This season so far, the Bears defense is 7th in EPA/play.
➤Caleb Williams leads the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yds downfield with 26. He also only has 6 completions of that distance. His 23% comp. % 20+ yds downfield is 3rd-lowest of 35 QBs with at least 5 attempts this year.
Most INT passes 20+ yds downfield
Caleb – 3
Richardson – 3
Levis – 3
➤”Hey, you’re not going to punt too much here.”
Caleb Williams:
5 TD, 4 INT, 1,091 pass yds, 6.4 Y/A
Tory Taylor:
24 punts, 10 inside 20, 1,136 punt yds
➤The Jaguars have been a staple in London and overseas during the 46-game series.
This will be Jacksonville’s 12th game overseas as a franchise, and they are 6-5 SU and ATS. Jacksonville has actually closed as the favorite overseas four times and they are 2-2 SU/ATS.
Overall, Jags have actually won 3 of their last 4 games overseas, including going 2-0 SU/ATS last season in consecutive weeks in London for the first time. Now Jacksonville will face Chicago this week and the Patriots next week overseas.
For Trevor Lawrence, this will be 5th game overseas, he is 3-1 SU/ATS, averaging 22 PPG scored and covering the spread by 5.8 PPG.
➤Jaguars got their first win of the season last week. Teams in Week 6 or later, coming off their first SU win of the season are only 45-82 SU (35%) in their next game.
Chargers in 2003 are the last team to play a neutral game after getting their first win this late – they lost 26-10 in their next game.
➤Lawrence is 8-20 SU and 13-15 ATS on the road. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $1,119 on the road in his career. Of the 97 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the road.
Dating back to December 1 of last year, Lawrence is 0-6 SU on the road – the most losses by any QB in that span.
➤Lawrence is 12-9 ATS in his career after a SU win, including 9-5 ATS when that next game is played away from home, either on road or neutral site, including 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in that spot.
➤Lawrence is 33-24 to the under in his NFL career, 5th-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 105 QBs), including 24-14 to the under in November or earlier.
Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons.
➤Lawrence is 26-31 ATS in his career. He's 21-19 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
➤Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite:
Underdog: 34-26 ATS
Favorite: 31-35 ATS
➤This will be the Bears’ 3rd trip overseason in an International Series game. Chicago has played Chase Daniel and Jay Cutler overseas, with Daniel losing as 6.5-pt favorites vs. Raiders and Cutler winning as 1.5-pt favorites vs. Bucs.
➤The Bears are 1-9-1 to their win total over since 2013 (went over 7.5 in 2018 with 12 wins) with their win total set at 8.5 in the preseason.
After a 3-2 SU start, Chicago is well on their way. The Bears haven’t won three consecutive games SU since December of 2020 under Mitch Trubisky.
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➤Lamar Jackson has faced an NFC team 22 times in his career, he is 21-1 SU (11-11 ATS) in those games – with his only loss coming to the Giants back in 2022.
➤Dan Quinn has faced Lamar Jackson once prior to this matchup – back in 2018 as coach of the Falcons. Lamar beat him in Atlanta 26-16.
In Lamar Jackson’s 88 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 43 times – he is 36-7 SU (85.4%), 23-20 ATS in those games. When he faces that coach again (2nd time or later), he is 26-19 SU and 25-20 ATS.
2nd matchup hasn’t always been great for opposing coaches either. Since start of last year, coaches in 2nd game vs. Lamar are 1-7 SU/ATS.
➤History tells you to bet road underdogs who didn’t make the playoffs the year prior. Since 2019, they are 55% ATS in 600+ game sample size and 22-15 ATS this year.
➤Washington’s offense has been absurd.
- 63% of drives ending in an offensive score, best in NFL
- 42.5 net yds per drive, best in NFL
- 57% conversion pct on 3rd and 4th down, best in NFL
➤This is one of just a few games that could close with a total of 50+ this week. Totals of 50+ are 4-0 to the under this season, going under the total by 13.6 PPG.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 16-4 to the under and last three years they are 34-14 to the under (71%).
➤Washington is averaging 31 PPG, highest mark in the NFL.
We haven’t seen a team off winning 4 games or less the season prior average 30+ PPG through five games since the 2017 Rams.
➤Over the past four seasons, Jackson is a perfect 7-1 ATS as a dog, but 18-21 ATS as a favorite, including 7-18 ATS when favored by more than three points.
As either a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, Jackson is 18-4 ATS in that time span and 25-5 ATS in his career in the regular season.
➤The Bucs and Falcons, and Bengals and Ravens, played overtime games in Week 5.
Looking just at Cincinnati and Baltimore – Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43% of games over the last decade, covering just 44% of them.
When that team plays at home, they are 46-63-2 ATS (42%).
➤The Ravens rush defense has been the best in the NFL this season.
Baltimore is allowing 3.05 yds per rush, fewest in the NFL and they are 3rd in rush defense EPA/play and 1st in rush success rate.
Opposing RBs are 3-7 to their rushing yards over this season against this Ravens rush defense.
➤They run the ball on offense well, too. The Ravens were the first NFL team in league history to out-rush opponents by 100 or more yards in each of the first four games of the season. They have now done it through five games.
➤Since 2020, Ravens have 8 home losses after leading by 10+ pts at any point in the game – three more than any other team.
Their 11 losses leading by 10+ pts since 2020 home or away is the 2nd-most behind just the 49ers, who have 13.
➤Lamar Jackson won the MVP award last season and began the season 0-2 SU. He was the 4th NFL MVP since 1970 to start 0-2 SU the following season and only one made the playoffs that year – 1984 Redskins with Joe Theismann.
➤As a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, Lamar Jackson is 25-5 ATS in the regular season — best mark of 282 QBs last 20 years.
When Lamar is favored by more than 3 points, he is 21-31 ATS in the regular season.
➤Ravens had the first half won vs. the Bengals and their defense let up the big TD late. Overall, Jackson is 53-33-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 260 QBs.
2023: 13-5 1H ATS
2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
➤Over the last decade, there is no harder road trip than Green Bay. Teams to go from a road game to a road game in Lambeau are 7-15-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by almost 3 PPG. Those teams are 3-6 ATS since 2020.
➤The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this year. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best % for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
You would expect to see a dip in his numbers when favored, but he’s actually 32-28 ATS as a favorite with the Packers. The issue has been away from home, where he's gone 9-13 ATS as a favorite.
In the first three weeks of the regular season, LaFleur is 15-3 ATS with the Packers, best win pct among all head coaches since 1990 (min. 10 games).
He’s 41-36 ATS in game 4 on.
➤Packers covered as road favorites vs. Rams last week and are now favorites again. Jordan Love is 3-4 ATS as a favorite in his short career, he’s never covered or won consecutive games as chalk.
➤One issue for Love so far this season has been his completion pct. It’s sitting at 56.1%, lowest mark of all QBs with 100+ pass attempts (he has 114). Love also has a -6.3 CPOE (completion pct over expected), 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Last 5 years, here is lowest comp. % for QBs with at least 114 pass att through 5 games:
- 2022 Baker Mayfield, 54.9%
- 2023 Jordan Love, 55.6%
- 2024 Jordan Love, 56.1%
The good part? Love’s long passing game. Last year he was 38-90 (42%) on passes 20+ yds downfield, most completions in football and middle of NFL in pct. This year, he’s 8-18 on 20+, 5th-most completions.
➤Kyler Murray road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 22-11 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year.
➤McVay and Stafford have been a decent bet after a divisional game as a duo. They are 11-7-2 ATS after a divisional game and 10-17 ATS after a non-divisional game.
➤Most would assume a letdown from Arizona’s side. Since 2018, teams off a SU win as a road dog vs. divisional opponent the week before are actually 65-43 ATS (60%) in their next game.
➤There have been some discussions about the Cardinals and Kyler Murray making comebacks. Well, last week they did just that.
The Cardinals are now 4-29 SU down 10+ points at any point in the game since 2021.
➤Cardinals, Ravens and Broncos are coming off 10+ pt comeback wins last week.
Teams coming off a 10+ pt comeback in their previous game, are 86-84 SU, but 73-96-1 ATS (43%), including 93-75-2 to the under in their next game since 2020.
➤Cardinals are coming off a win on the road against the 49ers last week. In 2024, teams are 2-2 SU after facing the 49ers, but last three seasons, they are 11-27 SU, least profitable mark of any team in the NFL.
➤Kyler Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 27-16-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL, he's the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind only Jared Goff.
➤When the Cardinals are bigger underdogs with Kyler they've seen even more success. They are 13-6-2 ATS as a dog of 4 pts or more, including 11-3-2 ATS when he’s on the road.
➤Kyler has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST or CST, he is 17-6 ATS — covering the spread by 5.9 PPG — and only 20-26-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.
➤The Cardinals have allowed opposing QBs to complete a combined 72.5% of passes this year – that is the 2nd-highest mark for any team with 5 games played this season. They are allowing 8.14 Y/A, 3rd-highest mark in the NFL. Their pass defense is 30th in dropback EPA and last, 32nd in dropback success rate.
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➤Welcome to the big leagues, Drake Maye.
- Rookies in their first start are 43-94-1 SU (31.4%) since 2000. When they are at home, they are 26-45-1 SU (36.6%) in that span.
- When that first start comes in a team's 6th game or later, they are 23-44 SU (34.3%).
- When that first start comes in a team's 6th game or later, with that team finishing the season under .500 SU (which we assume NE will), they are 15-38 SU (28%).
➤CJ Stroud has made 22 starts in his NFL career. He is 10-12 ATS – 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 4-9 ATS as a favorite.
If Stroud and Texans close -7 or higher, it would be the biggest spread of his career so far.
As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Stroud is 2-7 ATS in the NFL, worst mark in the NFL since he was drafted last year.
When Stroud faces a defense allowing 21 PPG or less, he’s 1-5 ATS in his last six starts, and the one win was last week vs. Bills – a game a lot of people thought they should have lost.
➤For the first time since 2012, the Texans opened the season being favored in their first five games. In 2012, Houston was favored in its first eight games of the season.
➤Since 2000, the Patriots have closed +6 or higher at home seven times and NE is 5-1-1 ATS.
Between 2003-19, Tom Brady was a home dog three times. They’ve been a home dog now 15 times since he left, going 4-9-2 ATS.
➤Underdogs of 7 pts or more at home within a team's first nine games of the season are 96-69-2 ATS (58%) since 2003, including 14-0-1 ATS since 2022. They are 33-9-2 ATS since 2020.
➤The Patriots haven’t opened the season as underdogs in their first six games since 1991 – when they were dogs in their first 13 games of the season, finishing 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS. More importantly, 11-5 to the under in their 16 games.
➤Because it's important we keep an updated tally …
Patriots since Brady left: 30-43 SU, 30-40-3 ATS
Patriots since Belichick left: 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS
➤Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 40 times in five seasons (14-24-2 ATS). Between 2004 and 2019, Brady in New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
➤Texans and Dolphins got their first cover of the season last week. Teams after losing at least four games in a row ATS, who break the streak are just 24-37 SU in their next game, including 13-25 SU on the road. Miami is on a bye this week.
➤Derek Carr has missed 2 regular season games for injuries in his career.
Week 17 in 2016 (leg)
Week 5 in 2017 (back)
He also missed the playoff game for the Raiders in the 2016 season and was benched for final 2 games of the 2022 season.
➤With Derek Carr sidelined, the Saints go to a backup QB this week.
This will be the Saints 26th game with a backup QB dating back to 2013 and they are a very respectable 13-12 SU and 16-9 ATS using a backup QB over that span.
Their last such example came back in 2022 when Andy Dalton started four games for New Orleans, going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. At home with a backup, they are 5-6 SU/ATS since 2013.
➤So far during the 2024 season, we’ve had 11 games started by backup QBs. They are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS.
Here is how backup QBs have performed last two seasons.
46-66 SU
54-52-6 ATS
Here is how backup QBs perform in their first start with the team.
12-21 SU
15-17-1 ATS
Here is how backup QBs perform in their second start with the team.
8-14 SU
12-10 ATS
➤Baker has had his struggles on extended rest in his career going just 8-11 SU and 7-12 ATS, including 2-7 SU on the road.
Losing on the road in six straight games in this spot with the Bucs, Rams, Panthers and Browns.
➤Against divisional opponents, Baker has been dreadful at home ATS, but better on the road. He is 4-10 ATS at home and .500 ATS at 9-9 on the road.
He’s the 2nd-worst QB ATS vs. divisional opponents since he was drafted, ahead of only Sam Darnold.
➤From the coaching side, Todd Bowles is 8-15 SU on extended rest in his career, including 1-7 SU on the road, losing 7 straight with the Bucs and Jets since 2015.
➤Road trip turnaround for Baker. In his career, Mayfield is 5-10 ATS when playing on the 2nd game or later of a road trip – 2-1 ATS with Bucs and 3-9 ATS with the Browns.
➤Bucs have the Ravens on deck next week. Teams with Baltimore on deck are 66-38 SU (63%) since Lamar became the starter in 2018 – that’s the best win pct for any opponent on deck. As they said in “The Wire”, “Lamar is coming.”
➤Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-13 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game. A $100 bettor would be up $616 taking the under in this spot.
But recently the tide has turned. When he plays on the road, the over is 6-3 in his last 9 starts, including scoring 30 on the road last week in an over & loss to the Falcons.
➤Against divisional opponents, Baker has been dreadful at home ATS, but better on the road. He is 4-10 ATS at home and .500 ATS at 9-9 on the road after the loss last week in Atlanta.
➤Bowles is 49-54-5 ATS (48%) in his coaching career. He’s 15-8 ATS with Baker Mayfield and 34-46-5 ATS with all other QBs.
➤Saints defense has taken a turn allowing 26 pts now in consecutive games to the Chiefs and Falcons.
Historically, New Orleans is 40-28-1 ATS after allowing 24+ in consecutive games since 2003, but 30-15-1 ATS under Sean Payton and 10-13 ATS under all other coaches, including 2-4 ATS with Dennis Allen.
➤Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistently a road team vs. home team.
They are 22-32 ATS at home and 34-20-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral) – the best road/neutral team ATS in the NFL and the 3rd-worst home team.
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➤Under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles have played five games off a bye week. They are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in the regular season. All five of those games have come with Jalen Hurts.
This will be the first time Sirianni and Hurts come off a bye after a SU loss.
➤Historically, the Eagles have been hard to beat at home off of a bye. They are 17-3 SU at home off a bye since 2000 – with only losses to Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady.
➤Overall, teams off a bye – 13+ days of rest – facing a team who is playing on a normal 7-day cadence, is winning 56.1% of their games since 2003.
When those teams play at home, that bumps up to 64% SU, winning by 3.6 PPG.
➤In his career, Jalen Hurts has been great at home ATS, but not recently. He’s 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in his last four home starts. Hurts only had 6 ATS home losses prior to this stretch (17-6-1 ATS).
Eagles haven’t lost four consecutive games ATS at home since 2018 before this (lost 5 in a row ATS).
As a favorite of over 7 pts, Hurts is 3-7-1 ATS and 1-7 ATS in his last 8 starts in the spot.
Jalen Hurts' Career
Home: 17-10-1 ATS (4th-best of 102 QBs since 2020).
Road/Neutral: 12-19-1 ATS (worst of 108 QBs since 2020).
➤This is one of the biggest lookahead to current line moves of the week, with Philly at -3 on the lookahead.
When teams see lines move 3+ pts like Philly, they only cover 46% of games on the closing number since 2020 and they are 7-10-1 ATS this season.
➤Seahawks and Browns allowed a ton of sacks in Week 5. History says to continue to fade them. Teams after allowing 7 sacks or more are 94-122-6 ATS (44%) last 20 years, including 11-21-1 ATS last three seasons.
➤Browns are in a bad spot in this one. Teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 44-69 SU (39%) since 2003, losing by over 3 PPG. These teams are 4-10 SU last three seasons. When that team is a dog on the end of a road trip, they are 21-58 SU (27%), including 1-10 SU in the last 11 games in this spot.
➤Deshaun Watson is 34-36-2 ATS in his career and 14-22-2 ATS as a favorite and 20-15 ATS as an underdog.
Watson has started six games in his career as an underdog of 7 pts or more, he is 0-6 SU, but 3-3 ATS. Above a FG underdog, Watson is 5-15 SU in his career.
➤How bad has Watson been recently? 62 QBs have had 200+ plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 55th in EPA/play, 54th in success rate, 51st in CPOE (comp. % over expected).
His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Davis Mills.
Watson’s last 300 yd game came with the Texans in January 2021.
➤The Browns had the best defense in the NFL last year, by most standards. But for this concept, it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following year with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Through five weeks, the Browns are 15th in EPA/play on defense at -0.025.
➤In his career as a starter for the Titans, Will Levis has started four games where he has had some extended prep time during the season.
He is 3-1 SU in those games, all listed as an underdog. On normal prep or less time (7 days or less), Levis is 1-7 SU as a starter. Levis has scored more than 17 pts once in those 8 games.
➤Overall, teams off a bye – 13+ days of rest – facing a team who is playing on a normal 7-day cadence, is winning 56.1% of their games since 2003.
When it’s a divisional game, the team on extended rest bumps to 58.4% SU.
When those teams play at home, that bumps up to 64% SU, winning by 3.6 PPG.
➤The Colts held the ball (TOP) for an average of 21.36 minutes across their first three games — the lowest mark in the NFL. Their total offensive TOP was 64:48 in their first three games – the only team below 65 minutes combined in their first three games since the 1999 Browns.
In almost two full games with Joe Flacco, they have over 60 minutes of TOP with 28:53 vs. Steelers and 31:32 vs. Jaguars.
➤Titans got their first win of the season before their bye week. Teams in Week 6 or later, coming off their first SU win of the season are only 45-82 SU (35%) in their next game since 1990. When teams are on extended rest like the Titans, they are just 10-23 SU.
➤This is a business trip for the Colts. Teams off a SU who hit the road in their next game cover 53% of the time in 700+ game sample size since 2019, 19-15 ATS this season.
➤Joe Flacco had 33 completions against the Jaguars last week. This season, Anthony Richardson has 39 completions in 77 attempts through about 3 full games played.
Flacco is 3rd in EPA/play this season behind Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen. His completion pct above expected is 2nd-best of any QB, behind only Daniels again.
Flacco is completing 70% of his passes this year, Richardson is at 50.6%.
➤Richardson in terms of completion pct is on a bad path.
Through 150+ pass attempts in his first two years in the NFL, here is the lowest comp % last decade
Bryce Petty: 53%
DeShone Kizer: 53%
David Blough: 54%
Josh Rosen: 55%
Zach Wilson: 55%
Anthony Richardson: 55%
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➤Chargers are off the bye coming into Denver – Jim Harbaugh’s first NFL bye week since 2014. This will be Harbaugh’s 8th NFL game off a bye week and he was just 3-3-1 SU and 3-4 ATS. Oddly enough, this will be his first road game off a bye, as the previous seven were all at home for him.
➤When just looking at Harbaugh and extended rest/prep – with the 49ers, he was 14-5-1 SU and at Michigan he was 15-11 SU.
➤Off extended rest, Justin Herbert has won his last three road games entering this matchup beating the Jets, Colts and Falcons all since 2022. In Herbert’s five road games in this spot, the Chargers have scored 20 pts or more in each.
➤Overall, teams off a bye – 13+ days of rest – facing a team who is playing on a normal 7-day cadence, is winning 56.1% of their games since 2003.
When it’s a divisional game, the team on extended rest bumps to 58.4% SU.
➤On the other side of some extended prep, Sean Payton has been a thorn in other coaches' sides. Between the Broncos and Saints, his teams are 5-1 SU since 2019 facing a team on rest when his team is not. That is 2nd-best in that span behind just Andy Reid.
When Payton is on normal rest, and his opponent is off a bye, Payton is 10-5 SU.
➤Sean Payton is 56-36-2 ATS (61%) as an underdog in his career. With minimum 30 games as a dog, he’s 4th-best as a dog ATS in terms of win pct since 1990.
When Payton’s teams are 'dogs in September or October, they are 31-13-1 ATS, including 8-2 ATS at home.
➤Dating back to 2021, Broncos have lost all five games they played directly after facing the Raiders, going 0-5 SU/ATS.
➤Since 2015, Broncos home unders are .500 or better in 9 straight years, going 48-30-1 (62%).
After the over in Denver last week, that is the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, just ahead of the Chiefs and Giants.
A Broncos home game hasn’t closed with a total below 36 since 2011 and it hasn’t happened in October or earlier since 2005.
➤Bo Nix has turned a bit of a corner.
1st 2 games: 0-2 SU, 60% comp%, 1 TD, 4 INT, 51 passer rating
Last 3 games: 3-0 SU, 64% comp%, 5 TD, 0 INT, 89 passer rating
➤The Broncos are already 3-0 ATS on the road this season. In his career, Sean Payton is 80-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site.
How about at home? Broncos are 1-1 ATS this year and 8-11 ATS since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 20-27 ATS.
➤The Chargers finished 3-5 ATS on the road last season, breaking an 11-year streak of finishing .500 or better against the spread on the road.
Herbert is 19-14 ATS on the road, including 9-4 ATS in September and October.
➤Justin Herbert has made 67 career starts in the NFL. He is 32-35 SU and 34-31-2 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 27-9 SU, 25-9-2 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
When the game is played in EST or CST, Herbert is 16-9 ATS
When the game is played in MST or PST, Herbert is 18-22-2 ATS
➤Over the last three seasons, the under is 24-10 in Herbert’s 34 regular season starts – the most profitable QB to the under in that span.
Herbert’s last 8 starts have gone under the total.
➤Herbert is 20-42-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he’s 260th of 261 QBs in 2H ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford.
Herbert is 9-28-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$1,980 — 3rd-worst in NFL since 2005).
2024: 2-2 ATS
2023: 3-9-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤The role of road favorite has never suited Mike Tomlin well. He is 33-41-2 ATS as a road fav career, but in the last three seasons, he’s only been in the spot six times and he’s 4-2 SU/ATS even after the loss vs. the Colts two weeks ago.
➤Justin Fields has faced a defense allowing 25+ PPG twelve times in his career, he is 5-7 SU – over 45% of his “during season/post Week 1” career wins.
When he faces a defense allowing below that mark, he is 6-21 SU. Two of Fields’ wins came in Week 1.
➤In the NFL, Justin Fields has started two games outside CST or EST time zones – playing in Denver and in Las Vegas. He is 2-0 SU/ATS, winning those games by 9 PPG. His defense with the Steelers and Bears have allowed a total of 15 points in those two games.
In college, Fields started one game in MST or PST, a 29-23 loss to Clemson, Trevor Lawrence in Glendale in 2019.
➤When opponents score more than 20 pts vs. a Justin Fields-led team, they are 22-0 SU.
All 13 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 pts or less — with their average being 13 PPG.
➤Fields will be listed as a favorite now in his 5th consecutive start dating back to Week 2.
He was listed as a favorite in 6 of 38 starts prior to that stretch.
➤The Raiders have seen some success from draft pick Brock Bowers this season. He has 28 receptions, 36 targets through five games, both lead league for TEs.
TEs with 30+ targets, 25+ rec through 5 career games: Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, Jordan Reed. Bowers’ 36 targets and 28 rec are the most for any TE through five games.
➤Mike Tomlin road unders have been the solid route recently. They are 85-63-1 (57%) to the under in his career, including 55-26-1 (69%) since 2015 – best of any head coach.
When the total is under 38, Tomlin is 7-2 to the under on the road.
➤Now it’s two in a row. Pittsburgh has managed to lose a one-score game two weeks in a row against the Colts and Cowboys. They are 2-2 SU this season in one-score games.
Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Since 2020, they are 33-13 SU in one-score games, best mark in NFL. They are 31-15 ATS in those games with their avg line being close to PK in those games.
➤Steelers lost as favorites last week. In a team's first six games of the season, they are 55.3% ATS in a 600+ game sample size after a SU loss. These teams are 16-9 ATS this season. In Week 5, that is the 49ers, Seahawks, Eagles and Steelers.
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➤Falcons faced the Bucs on TNF, and looking ahead, neither Baker or Kirk are very good historically off of rest.
In his career, Cousins is 13-18 SU and 11-20 ATS on extended rest. His 11-20 ATS mark is 225th of 227 QBs last 20 years, ahead of just Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. On the road with rest Cousins is 6-12 ATS – worst of 193 QBs.
➤Falcons have lost two straight games on the road in Carolina leading into this one. They haven’t lost three straight on the road in Carolina since 1995-97.
➤Kirk may be back on the upswing. His last two starts have gone over the total after a streak of nine straight unders dating back to last season.
That is in contrast to his career tendencies: The over is 85-68-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the 5th-most profitable QB to the over in the last 20 years.
➤Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits even after the win on TNF last week.
1p ET or earlier: 59-33-2 SU (64%)
After 1p ET: 21-39 SU (35%)
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 7-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints.
The Falcons are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after a SU win with an ATS cover in consecutive games happening back in October of 2022.
➤In Kirk Cousins’ career, he is 31-43-2 ATS (42%) after a SU win, 2nd-worst mark of 244 QBs since 2003, ahead of only Jay Cutler.
As a favorite of 4 pts or more in that spot, he’s 4-14-1 ATS.
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through five games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks.
On the season, the Falcons have just five sacks in five games – the same exact total they had through five games last year, too. Since 1980, only one other team has recorded 5 sacks or less through their first five games in back-to-back seasons – 1993-94 Falcons.
➤Both the Falcons and Colts have started the season through five games having each of their games decided by one score (8 pts or less).
Atlanta is 3-2 SU, Indy is 2-3 SU. Teams over .500 SU having a one score game in each of a teams first five games are 6-10 SU in their next game and overall, teams with 5+ straight one-score games win just 40% of games SU on the road.
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 7-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints.
The Falcons are now 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after a SU win and 1-4 ATS on a 2+ game SU win streak.
➤In Kirk Cousins’ career, he is 31-43-2 ATS (42%) after a SU win.
That includes 13-21-1 ATS at home, the 3rd-worst mark ATS in the last 20 years of 201 QBs ahead of just Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer and he is 18-22-1 ATS on road/neutral.
➤The Panthers have been an underdog in 25 straight games (34 of last 35) and were last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Sept. 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
➤With Andy Dalton, it tends to start well and fade from there. Since 2021, his teams are 3-9 against the second-half spread, failing to cover the spread by 4.8 pts per 2nd half.
➤Dalton has made four starts since the beginning of last year, the over is 4-0 in those games, going over the total by 14.1 PPG. His +$361 on overs in that span ($100/bet) is the best mark in the NFL.
➤Cowboys have held the advantage in this series recently, beating the Lions in six consecutive games SU over the last decade, including being 11-3 SU since 2003.
➤Dan Campbell has coached 70 total games. He is 36-34 to the over as a head coach. When the total is 50+ in his games, the under is 11-5, going under the total by 4.9 PPG.
➤This is one of just a few games that could close with a total of 50+ this week. Totals of 50+ are 4-0 to the under this season, going under the total by 13.6 PPG.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 16-4 to the under and last three years they are 34-14 to the under (71%).
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor…
Indoor: 38-18 ATS (28-10 ATS last four seasons)
Outdoor: 36-35-2 ATS
➤How has Jared Goff done on extended rest? 21-10-1 SU, 19-11-2 ATS – on extended rest during the season, Goff has covered the spread in seven straight games, including going 14-4 ATS since 2020, best mark in the NFL.
➤Dating back to last season, Goff has covered 4 straight road games and he is 13-3 ATS in his last 16 road games, losing to the Panthers, Ravens and Bears.
➤Scared of backing Goff as a road favorite? Since start of last season, Lions are 6-1 ATS in that spot.
➤No matter the circumstances, the Lions have figured out a way to cover the spread since 2022. Here are their ATS numbers off a SU win and SU loss since 2022.
SU win: 16-8 ATS, 12-2 ATS off win of 7+ pts
SU loss: 10-4 ATS
Lions have won 9 consecutive games ATS after a SU loss dating back to November, 2022.
Goff is 18-8 ATS with Lions after a SU loss, Campbell is 18-9 ATS in that spot.
➤Let’s look at some Jared Goff superlatives, since he is back being a cover machine.
Goff is most profitable QB ATS over the past…
2 seasons: 17-7 ATS
3 seasons: 29-12 ATS
4 seasons: 38-17 ATS
5 seasons: 46-25 ATS
6 seasons: 56-30-1 ATS
7 seasons: 65-39-2 ATS
8 seasons: 74-46-2 ATS
9 seasons: 74-53-2 ATS (his rookie year)
➤The Lions are 38-17 ATS (69.1%) in the regular season over the past four years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
➤Nobody has early season success like Mike McCarthy. In September and October, McCarthy is 72-50-3 ATS, the 3rd-best mark in the last 20 years for any coach behind just Bill Belichick and Sean Payton.
➤Dak has had his struggles as an underdog. He’s 17-18 ATS in his career, but 2-8 ATS as an underdog in his last ten starts even after the win vs. Steelers last week.
➤Dak Prescott is 29-12 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,541) | 38-45-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$931).
Over the past 20 years, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first).
Even after the win vs. Pittsburgh, Dak is 2-7 ATS in his last nine games vs. non-NFC East teams.
➤Dak does well vs. bad teams. He's 32-14-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 19-33 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
The 19-33 ATS mark is ranked 263rd of 266 QBs since 2003. He’s 3-8 ATS since start of last year and 10-19 ATS since 2019.
His 32-15-2 ATS mark is 2nd-best of 259 QBs last 20 years, behind only Tom Brady.
➤Tom Brady will be on the call for Lions-Cowboys after having Cowboys-Browns in Week 1, Saints-Cowboys in Week 2, Ravens-Cowboys in Week 3, Eagles-Bucs in Week 4 and Cardinals-49ers in Week 5.
Just so we can keep track, road teams 4-1 SU/ATS, underdogs 4-1 SU/ATS and overs 4-1 with Brady in the booth.
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➤Once again, Daniel Jones finds himself in primetime.
Jones is 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS at night in his career, including 0-7 SU at home at night. Since 2003, Jones’ 1-14 SU (7%) mark is the lowest win percentage among all quarterbacks with a minimum of 5 starts.
➤In 1p ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-18-1 SU, 22-16 ATS. After the 1p ET window, he is 6-22 SU, 13-15 ATS – he’s covered two straight after six straight ATS losses.
The 6-22 SU mark after 1p ET is ranked 108th of 110 QBs in ML profitability since he was drafted.
➤Jones has been better off losses vs. wins in his career.
23-15 ATS after a SU loss
11-11 ATS after a SU win
➤Joe Burrow is only 5-7 SU playing in night games throughout his career, but looking inside the numbers, he is 5-2 SU as a favorite and 0-5 SU as an underdog.
In the three night games Burrow has closed above a 4pt favorite, his teams are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.
➤In Burrow’s career, he is 23-11 ATS on the road or a neutral site. When he’s closed as a FG favorite or higher on the road, he is 8-3 ATS in his career.
➤Joe Burrow is 8-12 SU vs. AFC North and 27-16-1 SU vs. all other divisions, including 9-3 SU as a road favorite vs. teams outside the AFC North.
➤Burrow bounceback? Burow is now 16-7-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 11-3-1 ATS in Sept/Oct.
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 39-24-1 (62%) against the second-half spread. He's 5-10 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
➤Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 27 times in his career; he's 20-6-1 ATS, including 2-2 ATS in 2024 so far.
➤In 2022, Burrow completed 38% of his attempts 20+ yds downfield. That dipped to 33% in 2023 and in 2024 so far he is 7-14 going 20+ downfield, for a 50% comp pct. His 3 TD passes of 20+ yds is tied for the league lead. Burrow is the No. 1 graded passer 20+ yds downfield via PFF this year.
➤Dating back to 2022, Burrow is 9-1 SU in his last 10 games vs. the NFC, after starting 1-4 SU in that spot to begin his career.
➤Zac Taylor has heavily relied on Joe Burrow in his coaching career. He is 8-22 SU with all QBs not named Burrow and is 35-28-1 SU in starts with Joe at QB.
When Cincinnati is going bad, Taylor doesn’t exactly pick them up.
Zac Taylor on ML by Bengals win pct
Under .500 SU: 14-29-1 SU (33%) – including 9-12-1 SU with Burrow
Over .500 SU: 22-15 SU (61.1%) – 21-11 SU with Burrow
➤Both the Jets and Giants play at home in primetime this week.
The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-29 straight up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
They last finished a season .500 SU or better in night games back in 2015 – they are 11-42 SU in primetime since then.
➤The Bucs and Falcons, and Bengals and Ravens, played overtime games in Week 5.
Looking just at Cincinnati and Baltimore – Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43% of games over the last decade, covering just 44% of them.
➤After a massive win on the road vs. the Seahawks last week, a bit of a good spot for New York now.
Flying out of the Pacific Northwest. Last four years, teams after playing in Seattle are 19-7 ATS in their next game – most profitable previous road opponent in the NFL.
➤On the other hand, EST teams heading home after a game in PST hasn’t been pretty. They are 92-111-8 ATS (45%) since 2003, including 14-23 ATS since 2021.
➤Just a bad spot. Giants were in PST last week vs. Seahawks now return home to EST this week. Teams in that spot cover just 45.3% of games since 2003. They are 0-4 ATS this season and 5-12 ATS since start of last year.
➤One of the reasons you would be the Giants here is the swiss cheese Bengals defense allowing 29 PPG this year.
When Daniel Jones faces a defense allowing 24+ PPG, he is 1-6 ATS as a favorite and 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
➤38 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-21 straight up (SU) and 22-16 against the spread (ATS).
Those teams had an 100-256-3 SU record (28%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 132-221-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.
The Jets will try to become the 3rd team to make playoffs w/ interim coach with 2021 Raiders and Rich Bisaccia and 1961 Oilers and Wally Lemm.
Since 2000, 12 head coaches have been fired within the first five games of the season, including Robert Saleh this year. Those teams are 6-5 SU and ATS, including 5-2 SU and ATS since 2010.
➤There have been six different Jets coaches in the last 20 years and none have been profitable ATS with New York. Saleh is 23-32-1 ATS with the Jets, the least profitable of the group.
➤Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers have technically played a total of three times, after Rodgers played four snaps in the opener last year. Rodgers is 2-1 SU in those games and actually 3-0 ATS.
➤Allen has played on MNF nine times in his career, he is 4-5 SU/ATS. Aaron Rodgers on the other hand has played a total of 20 times, he is 13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS.
Prior to the Jets’ loss in Week 1 vs. the 49ers, Rodgers had won ten consecutive starts on MNF.
➤Allen has started seven career games of two consecutive SU losses. His teams are 6-1 SU, but 3-3-1 ATS in those games. His only loss came to the Texans to end the 2019-20 season.
➤The biggest advantage in Buffalo? That might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 63-42-3 against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 3rd-most profitable QB on the second-half spread. In 2024, he’s 4-1 2H ATS.
➤On extra rest during the season in his career, Josh Allen is just 9-13-1 ATS, including 2-5 ATS when that game is on the road.
➤In 43 career home night games, Aaron Rodgers has only closed as an underdog twice – in the opener last year vs. Bills and back in 2008 against the Cowboys and Tony Romo.
Overall, Rodgers is 28-14-1 ATS at home in night games, the best ATS mark since 2003 by a wide margin. When Rodgers has faced a divisional opponent in this spot, he’s 19-6 ATS.
➤Both the Jets and Giants play at home in primetime this week.
The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-29 straight up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
They last finished a season .500 SU or better in night games back in 2015 – they are 11-42 SU in primetime since then.
➤December 12th, 2021 — Aaron Rodgers’ last 300+ yard passing game. Also his last four-touchdown game (which came against the Bears).
Since that 300-yard game: he's 14-14 SU, 12-16 ATS — includes NYJ opener win vs Buffalo last year.
Since the start of 2022, Rodgers has had a worse pass success rate than Desmond Ridder and his EPA per play figure, which ranks 35th is exactly equal to Daniel Jones’.
➤Nathaniel Hackett is in his second year as OC in New York and his 11th as a coach or OC. His teams are 97-78-1 to the under, going .500 or better to the under in all five teams he’s been a part of.
'23-’24 NYJ: 7-14-1
'22 DEN: 6-11
'19-'21 GB: 27-27
'16-'18 JAC: 25-26
'13-'14 BUF: 13-19
➤Jets are the 4th team to travel from neutral site game to play at home on MNF, previous three teams all lost outright at home, two as favorites.
Teams to play a night game after a neutral site game are just 3-7 ATS since 2010.
➤The Jets schedule hasn’t done them any favors. In the first 11 weeks, the Jets play six night games and a game in London without a bye week.
No other team plays more than four night games in the first 11 weeks. In fact, in the last 20 years, the Jets’ six night games within the first 11 weeks is the most of any team.
Primetime games:
Wk1 at SF, MNF (L, 32-19, +3.5)
Wk3 vs. NE, TNF (W, 24-3, -6.5)
Wk5 vs. MIN, London (L, 23-17, +2.5)
Wk6 vs. BUF, MNF
Wk7 at PIT, SNF
Wk9 vs. HOU. TNF
Wk11 vs. IND, SNF
➤The Jets were only the 3rd team in the last 80 years to play its first 3 games of a season within an 11-day span. Previous teams: 2018 Jets, 2013 Eagles.
2018 Jets. Finished 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS. Lost 4th game 31-12 on road.
2013 Eagles. Finished 10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS. Lost 4th game 52-20 on road.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Bet teams early season after losing SU as favorites.
Matches: PHI, PIT
System: This system works off of Pythagorean +/- and underdogs. Pythagorean is how well a team is overperforming or underperforming as compared to their pythagorean win-loss record.
Matches: DEN, CLE, ARI, JAC
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System: Is Baltimore overvalued this week? This system says to fade teams at home after huge offensive performances.
Matches: WAS
System: Bet dogs in low total games, especially early in the season.
Matches: NO, LV, DEN, NE, NYJ
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System: Bet unders in games with a home underdog.
Matches: Check updated lines
