Every week in the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
With the one Luck Ranking matchups in Week 7 ending in a loss, unlucky teams meeting our luck criteria move to 7-6-2 ATS in 2023 and 106-60-6 overall since 2018 in luck-based matchups.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the science behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at expected scores and comparing them to actual scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations they encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were unluckiest in Week 7 before heading into the Monday Night Football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 7
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
- Actual Result: Jaguars 31, Saints 24
- Expected Score: Saints 28, Jaguars 18
- Swing: 17 points, 40.1% win probability
If you took the Saints to cover, you can feel rightly aggrieved with this result.
The bad luck started in the first quarter as Saints rookie kicker Blake Grupe missed a 51-yarder that he's expected to make just north of 60% of the time.
Ironically enough, the bad luck continued when Grupe made his next field goal. That's because New Orleans had first-and-goal at the Jaguars' 6-yard line. Unable to punch it in, the Saints had to settle for a measly 23-yard field goal when they were expected to get 5.9 points off that drive on that initial first-down play.
However, the big win probability swing came in the third quarter when Foyesade Oluokun intercepted a Derek Carr pass and returned it 24 yards for a touchdown.
It all got topped off with a Christian Kirk 44-yard touchdown on a drive that, at that point, was expected to score just 2.3 points.
Somehow, the Jaguars put up 31 points despite an offensive success rate that was 2.5% below league average. The Jaguars had a boom-or-bust game, with three offensive TDs and a field-goal drive, and no other drives gaining more than 27 yards.
The order of the success really mattered, and if they were distributed a bit differently, the Jaguars would have put up fewer points.
2. Atlanta Falcons (+3)
- Actual Result: Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13
- Expected Score: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 14
- Swing: 10 points, 20.4% win probability
For the fifth time in seven weeks, the Falcons are the recipient of one of the three worst beats of the week.
This one is pretty straightforward, and it all comes down to one man — Desmond Ridder.
Ridder's three fumbles all occurred in the red zone, and all three resulted in a change of possession. Combined, those fumbles resulted in an EPA of -14.4, which more than makes up the bulk of the swing in scoreline.
In fact, outside of those three plays, Tampa Bay got slightly unlucky. However, taking the game as a whole, Atlanta's offensive success rate was 10% higher than Tampa's. The Falcons just threw a bunch of that success in the garbage thanks to those fumbles.
Thankfully it didn't matter for bettors, as Atlanta backers covered anyway. However, these scoreline vs. expected discrepancies are exactly what we should look for when evaluating future betting lines involving these teams.
3. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
- Actual Result: Bears 30, Raiders 12
- Expected Score: Bears 20, Raiders 14
- Swing: 12 points, 19.8% win probability
With six teams on bye, we're getting down to slim pickings on the bad beat front. Like the Falcons game, this bad beat is about expected win probability swing rather than a bad beat by win-loss result or by the betting line, as the Bears were winning and covering either way.
The main culprit in this one was Jaylon Johnson's 39-yard interception return for a touchdown that put the Bears up 30-6. That play resulted in a 7.9-point swing in EPA.
Aside from that, two field goals made the cut for why this scoreline should have been a bit different. First, Daniel Carlson's 41-yard miss is a kick he should make north of 80% of the time, costing the Raiders about 2.5 points compared to expectation.
Second, Cairo Santos' 54-yard field goal had only around a 60% expectation of going in, adding just over a point to the Bears' score vs. expected.
