Betting on NFL quarterback ineptitude is one of my guilty pleasures. Especially when they throw a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
That’s why for the 2023 NFL season, I’m going to dive headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on the QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 48-37 for +20.8 units so far.
This is also off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5 units. We can thank someone like Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings as he finished 2022 at +8.6 units for INT props (league leader) and threw an interception in five of six games when he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on throwing an interception in Week 7.
If the Rams can get pressure, this interception bet for Pickett could hit in the first quarter. If I had to predict, it will likely come in the second half after the Rams get a lead and force Pickett to make good throws, which is something he has yet to show as an NFL quarterback. There’s a lot of damning stats for Pickett through five games in 2023.
In 2023, he’s second in the NFL in bad-ball thrown rate at 22.7% of pass attempts. He also ranks 32nd of 33 NFL-eligible quarterbacks in on-target percentage for his passes at 66.9%. The only QB lower is Raiders QB Derek Carr at 56.1%.
Another factor is Pickett is the fifth-most pressured QB per dropback in NFL despite seeing the fewest blitzes for any starting quarterback. What that means is opposing defensive lines can do all the work upfront while the linebackers and secondary can sit back and wait for a mistake.
The Rams have forced an interception in three of the last four games and four of six games overall but have a bit of a weak spot stopping the run as opposed to defending the pass. It feels chalky, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
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After throwing two interceptions on the road in Cincinnati, it may seem puzzling why Smith has such high odds to throw an interception in Week 7 but this is a classic case of the sportsbook underestimating an opponent and the variables. It may seem like a “trap” line, as the kids say, but I’m happy to take the bait in this spot.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, the Cardinals do two things well: they can get to the quarterback (18 sacks, ninth in NFL) and they play their ass off. The Cardinals are feisty and despite being written off in September, they’ve been competitive in every game this season. They’ve also forced an opposing quarterback to throw an interception in four of six games in 2023.
As for Geno, he leads the NFL as the most-pressured QB per dropback (31.9%) and is also in the bottom-10 in the NFL in bad-ball rate at 17.5%. This is a recipe for an INT if the Cardinals can get into Smith’s face and make him uncomfortable. Especially since his offensive line is battered with the whole unit on the injury report this week.
I don’t like to bet with guarantees or “locks” of an interception but instead like to bet on how many chances we’ll get for the bet to cash. I expect Geno to look down the field often and if that happens, we’ll get at least 4 throws where we can cash. I would play this down to +150.
