NFL Week 7 Predictions
Can you believe we're already one third of the way through the NFL season?
It feels like it around the league, too. Those funky early upsets have started to fade away and last week was a dominant week for the favorites, just like we predicted in last week's column. After another big week, we're up over 13 units on the season with a robust 20.4% ROI through a third of the games.
We're starting to get a pretty good feel now for which teams belong in the dregs of the league and which ones are legit contenders. Sure enough, long spreads and high lines were sure to follow.
We're getting creative with this week's slate to duck some key numbers and long lines and — as always — hitting some escalators and long shots to try to boost that ROI and make some cash.
Let's get goofy.
Patriots vs. Jaguars
We finally got to see Drake Maye last week, and he looked good! Maye moved well in the pocket behind a bad line, and he dropped a few dimes and had great ball placement and feel for the game.
This looks like an ugly, windy, drizzly Sunday morning London game, but the one thing we know here is that the Jaguars defense stinks. Jacksonville ranks dead last by DVOA defensively, including dead last against the pass. The Jaguars allow the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and they've allowed 13 passing TDs in the last four games alone — at least two every game, three in all but one.
Jacksonville ranks only 30th in pressure rate, so Maye should have time to work. We saw what fellow rookie Caleb Williams did against Jacksonville last week. Maye was good out of a clean pocket too, 12-of-18 for 162 yards and three scores.
We only need two for this bet. Give me Maye two passing TDs at +255 (Caesars), and I'll build a little SGP for part of our bet too: 200 passing yards, 2 pass TDs, and 25 rushing yards at +525 (DraftKings).
Texans vs. Packers
If you've followed along this season, you know this is first and foremost a chance to bet on a team I believe in and fade one I don't. I like this matchup and spot for the Packers — so let's start with that, then get to why I'm playing just the second half.
Most of the metrics I trust make this a pretty even matchup, and it's priced accordingly.
Green Bay's offense against Houston's defense is strength on strength, though Jordan Love has typically been good under pressure and can probably find some explosives. The other side of the ball is a bit more unknown. The Packers defense is overperforming on late downs, but Houston has struggled on early downs and relied on C.J. Stroud making late-down magic.
Green Bay has the coaching edge too; Matt LaFleur is 24-12 ATS (67%) against teams above .500.
Some key Texans injuries tilt this Green Bay's direction. Nico Collins is a big loss to the receiving corps, and Houston could also be without both its top two linebackers and maybe stud LT Laremy Tunsil. But those injuries have pushed this toward Packers -3 and a key number I'd prefer to stay below.
I also don't totally trust the Packers early in this game. Green Bay has been inconsistent early, giving up big plays on defense and turning it over or settling for field goals offensively. Houston, on the other hand, has been super sharp early on. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in the first half, and most of the damage is coming on OC Bobby Slowik's three opening drives.
Houston has gotten itself into scoring position on 14-of-18 drives, looking at just the three first drives of their six games — that's eight touchdowns, four field goals, and two more missed field goals. That means the Texans have scored almost half their season point total (47%) on just 25% of their drives!
I like the Packers, but why pay a premium on a key number if Houston is just going to take the lead early? The Packers have covered four straight second halves, and the Texans are 1-5 ATS in the second half.
Give me Packers -1.5 in just the second half at +120, a bet we can hit even if Green Bay doesn't win the game if Love gets a second-half comeback in a loss. And let's place part of our bet on a Texans 1Q moneyline + Packers 2H moneylineparlay, negatively correlated at +390 (DraftKings) to fit those trends above.
Eagles vs. Giants
If you tailed last week, we grabbed Eagles -3.5 on the Lookahead in that one. But that pick has not gone according to plan. We thought the Eagles might crush the Browns and that the Giants would get housed by the Bengals, but neither of those reads were good and now the line has moved the other way.
More importantly, both teams' star left tackles got hurt on Sunday. Andrew Thomas looks like he'll miss the rest of the season and the Giants' offensive line is an absolute mess without him, maybe the worst in the league. Jordan Mailata is also out for the Eagles, whose usually great line hasn't been as strong this year, and that's especially problematic against a Giants defensive front firing on all cylinders.
Money has come in on the under and dropped this total because of those injuries, but I don't think it's gone far enough. I still love the under 43, especially since we get that key number.
The Eagles haven't topped 21 points since the opener, and the Giants have scored 21 or less in all but one game and haven't allowed more than 21 since the opener. Giants unders are 5-1 this season, best in the NFL.
We've also got some strong under trends in our favor. Daniel Jones home unders are 23-9-1 in his career (72%), while Nick Sirianni road unders have been profitable at 17-11 (61%). Brian Daboll totals below 44 have also trended under at 17-10-1 (63%).
This game looks ugly and low scoring, and that brings me back to Eagles -3.5 — a position I'm no longer loving. I thought the Eagles would look like the Eagles coming out of the bye week, but I'm not sure those old Eagles are still in there. I don't trust Philadelphia to finish drives anymore and I don't like the vibes with Sirianni jawing at the home fans.
Giving a tough Giants team the hook at home in a low scoring division rivalry game just doesn't feel great. Keep an eye on the app. I'm looking at buying out of our Lookahead position — part of the risk playing a week early and sticking with the under play I far prefer now. Be sure to play Giants +3.5 if you do buy out, since Giants +3 leaves you otherwise vulnerable on a three-point Eagles win.
Seahawks vs. Falcons
This is a pretty big game in the NFC, with both Seattle and Atlanta jostling for playoff positioning, and it looks like a shootout. Both defenses are struggling, though Seattle's gets a bit healthier finally, and these teams are both top three in situation-neutral pace.
The over has gotten hammered here, from 47.5 on Sunday to 51.5 now, past the last key number. We're looking at a likely shootout, and that means I want Geno Smith passing overs.
Smith is playing really well, and he's doing a lot. He leads the league in attempts, completions, and yards in Ryan Grubb's offense. Atlanta has precious little pass rush — so much for that Matthew Judon addition, graded 104th best edge rusher at PFF — and a beatable secondary, and Seattle has been one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league.
Over the last five games, Smith is averaging over 45 attempts for 321 yards. He's over 259.5 yards in all five of those games, and he's over 300 in 60% of them and almost hit 400 in one.
It's time for a Geno Smith escalator. Play the biggest chunk of your bet on the over 259.9, then look at 300+ yards at +235 (DraftKings) and sprinkle 325+ yards at +455 and maybe even 350+ at +750 (bet365).
Bengals vs. Browns
The Browns rank dead last in DVOA and a once great defense has seen the bottom fall out. They dropped to 21st in DVOA with a pass defense about the same, effectively the same metrics as this problematic Bengals defense.
Juan Thornhill has yet to play while fellow safeties Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman missed last week, and CB Denzel Ward is banged up too. Cleveland's pass defense is compromised, and it shows in the numbers.
After allowing only 19 passing plays of 28+ yards all last season, the Browns have already allowed 11 such plays in six games. Cleveland has faced five WR1-caliber players and allowed at least one 28-plus-yard reception to all five.
Ja'Marr Chase has seven plays already this season of 28 yards or more, at least one in all but one game. Even in a quieter night against the Giants last week (6/72), he still got a 33-yarder. Maybe it's a deep ball or maybe it's a short one with huge YAC like he's had lately, but I like Chase to get another big play.
I don't think I've ever played this type of prop before, but what fun is a new prop without a little escalator? The Browns have allowed five 40-yard pass plays already, with at least one in half their games. Chase has four such plays, at least one in half his games too.
Give me the over 26.5 longest reception, and let's sprinkle a 40+ longest reception at +330 too (bet365).
Panthers vs. Commanders
Run it back! We played almost this exact bet on Atlanta one week ago against the Panthers and hit it, so let's do it again with an even better offense.
The Panthers are not good, and it's manifesting itself early. Outside of Carolina's one win when it switched to Andy Dalton in a franchise kitchen sink spot, the Panthers are getting crushed out of the gates. This defense has allowed at least three touchdowns in the first half of every other Panthers game, with an average first-half score of 24-9 for the opponent.
Washington is due for some offensive regression soon enough, but it probably won't come against this hapless defense, which now ranks last in the league at 33.8 PPG and is missing its two best players in Shaq Thompson and Derrick Brown. It looks like Brian Robinson should be back and he'll find plenty of room to run. Washington is going to score points here.
Washington's defense isn't much better than Carolina's, and there are plenty of team-agnostic trends backing Carolina at a long number here — it's them and Miami as ugly underdogs this week if you just want to bet bad numbers — but in this case, Washington's poor defense just works in our favor. Go ahead and give up a score and give the ball back to Jayden Daniels and company to get more points.
This is the highest total of the week. We only need two touchdowns and a field goal, and Carolina is awfully generous these days.
We already talked Washington-Carolina — both teams should score plenty in that one, the highest total of the week, and Carolina may likely be playing from behind.
That means plenty of passing, and that's good news for Diontae Johnson. He's been an absolute stud in four games with Andy Dalton and no Adam Thielen, averaging almost 11 targets per game with 24 catches for 306 yards and three touchdowns. He's had at least six catches, 78 yards, and a score in three of those four games, all but the one against Chicago's Jaylon Johnson, playing about as well as any corner in the league.
Suffice to say Washington doesn't have any Jaylon Johnsons to sic on Diontae. WR1s are crushing against Washington this season: Chris Godwin 8/83/1, Malik Nabers 10/127/1, Ja'Marr Chase 6/118/2, Marvin Harrison Jr. 5/52/1, Zay Flowers 9/132.
Johnson ranks third in the NFL in target share since Dalton took over, and he leads the NFL with 11 end-zone targets on the season, four ahead of the next closest competitor.
Play Johnson to score a touchdown at +155 (FanDuel), and let's put part of our bet on an SGP of 75 receiving yards and a touchdown at +300 (bet365), something he's done in three of the last four games.
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Sometimes in sports, you simply have to bet the narrative.
These teams have played twice in the Super Bowl. The first time, the 49ers led 20-10 before Patrick Mahomes scored 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to steal the win. Then earlier this year, San Francisco led 10-3 at the half before the Chiefs came back and won in overtime.
This is what they do: Kyle Shanahan builds and blows leads, and Patrick Mahomes is inevitable.
The matchup here says the 49ers are better. San Francisco is the "right" side.
I do not care.
Patrick Mahomes is 25-8-1 ATS (76%) as a three-point favorite or anything worse, and unbeaten underdogs Week 5 or later are 21-8-2 ATS (72%) over the past couple decades. Some players and some teams just have "it."
The 49ers have been great early. They're 5-1 ATS in the first half, while the Chiefs are 2-3. San Francisco has been up by at least a touchdown at the half in all but one game.
But the 49ers are 1-5 ATS in the second half, Kyle Shanahan's bugaboo. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the second half.
We already know books will never give us juicy odds on a trailing Mahomes anymore, so we're going to have to do it ourselves before the game.
Bet the narrative: 49ers first-half moneyline + Chiefs full-game moneyline SGP at +700.
Sunday Night Football
This was one of our Hot Read picks on Sunday night, so I'll let you read most of the case there — just wanted to make sure you know I still like the pick, despite the line moving against us.
It's been a busy week for both teams. The Jets finally traded for Davante Adams, and the Steelers are apparently starting Russell Wilson for some reason? Wilson has zero chemistry with his team and wasn't good in the preseason, and there's no reason to think he has the locker room.
Wilson also has the longest time to throw in the entire NFL, and he'll be playing against a tough defense with a Pittsburgh offensive line that's banged up, likely missing rookie center Zach Frazier who has been excellent thus far. I would be downgrading both Pittsburgh's offense and its total with Wilson, not upgrading them.
Both defenses are good, both offenses are blah, and both teams want to run the ball which makes for a fast moving clock. The trends all love these ugly unders, especially in primetime. Non-Monday night unders between 37 and 40 the last two decades are 45-21-2 (68%).
I'm also including this bet again for one more reason — a negatively-correlated escalator.
I don't know how much Adams will play on Sunday night, but I know one thing: Rodgers will absolutely look his direction in the red zone in the few chances they get. Few tandems in history have better chemistry than Rodgers and Adams in the red zone.
I'm parlaying an Adams Anytime TD with the under, and with a total this low, books have to juice our SGP because there's just not many points to go around. In this case, Adams TD + the under gets us a juicy +700 play at DraftKings.
Look, if we have to watch these teams play on Sunday night, we may as well have a little fun.
Week 8 Lookahead Pick
We keep betting Giants and Steelers game all season, so I suppose they were bound to play each other at some point. You already know I love an ugly nighttime under with these two teams.
Giants games have finished at 39 or below in all but one game, an average of 36.2 PPG, and Steelers games are at 37 or below in four of six. Steelers unders are 4-2. Giants unders are 5-1, best in the NFL. And now we get to add the mess that is Russell Wilson into the mix too, apparently.
Primetime unders over the last five seasons continue to hit at 60%, and Brian Daboll unders below 44 are 17-10 (62%). This also fits our usual ugly under trend with a total at 38 and plummeting, and it likely ends up at 37 or below too, where unders are 38-16-1 (70%) since November 2019.
This line should only go one direction. Grab the under 37.5 ahead of the 37 since that's the last key number — and make some early alternate plans for next Monday night while you're at it.
