Week 6 was another brutal one in Survivor contests, with the most popular team (Tampa Bay) being eliminated. That took out another 33% of an already thinned out field.
Unfortunately, they were also the pick of this column, with the alternate choice (Baltimore) falling as well. For the sake of continuity, I'll be proceeding as if we had used the 49ers, the most popular available option.
Thus, we'll be proceeding with the Colts, Rams, Bengals, Packers, Bills and 49ers off the board.
We still have some very strong teams left to use, so we shouldn't be worried too much about end of season scenarios quite yet.
Still, we'll keep an eye on rest-of-season expectations using projected win probability for the whole season from our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner. These will update each week throughout the year, so every week we'll have up-to-date information.
We'll continue to utilize pick data to identify chalky teams to consider fading. While it's less important than it was at this time last week, maximizing EV in massive pools still requires going against the grain.
Let's dig into the Week 7 Picks.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are the top "look ahead" team on the board this week. They're taking on the Bears, at home on Monday Night Football. With Chicago among the league's worst teams, it's now or never for New England.
Heading into the season, games against the Jets seemed like the optimal time to play New England. However, with the Jets emergence, neither of those games would be comfortable choices.
Based on our current projections, this is the highest probability of a victory that New England will have for the rest of the year. Burning them now "costs" us almost nothing, as they're in the 40th percentile in "future wins" down the stretch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While it's scary to go back to the well with this pick, it's an even better spot for Tampa Bay in Week 7. They're the biggest favorites on the slate, while taking on a Carolina team in shambles.
We broke down last week all the reasons that saving the Bucs isn't quite necessary, and they still hold true in Week 7. If anything, their surprising loss to the Steelers strengthens that argument — it's hard to trust them in all but the easiest of matchups.
Of Course, Week 17 when they host these Panthers would also fit the bill, so there's a case to be made for saving the Bucs until then. Still, I'd rather make the more comfortable pick now, and find more value down the stretch.
While New England ranks ahead of the Bucs when considering opportunity cost, Tampa Bay is the heavier favorite, and thus theoretically the safer option.
The Data
Below is the full data for each week of the NFL season. The implied probability as of Week 7 is listed for each team, as well as their "future value" in survivor contests.
The future value is the percentile ranking of each team's combined win probability the rest of the way, and doesn't factor in which weeks are strong. It should be used as a rough guideline for which teams to save down the stretch.
For a downloadable sheet that covers the entire season, click here.
