Can't you just feel your body aching from all the hits in this game already? This is just a classic, UGLY Thursday night game, possibly featuring a pair of backup QBs since Ryan Tannehill is still hurt and Kenny Pickett left Sunday with injured ribs.
Both offenses entered the weekend bottom 10 in DVOA. Matt Canada's Steelers offense stinks. The Titans are great against the run, and you can pass on them, but can Mitch Trubisky? Tennessee potentially starts rookie Will Levis on a short week making his road debut. Levis threw four TDs against the Falcons, but Pittsburgh's defense is another animal, and Levis struggled in late-down passing situations and probably wasn't as good as the numbers looked.
And don't forget, Tuesday is the trade deadline, and Tennessee still looks like a seller. The Titans might not even have guys like Derrick Henry or DeAndre Hopkins by Thursday night.
By now, you know to expect ugly, low-scoring games on Thursday nights. Primetime unders are 61% the last four years and 71% so far this season, and Thursday unders at 40 or below are 17-4 (81%) since 2010. Non-Monday night unders with totals from 37 to 40 are 68%.
If this drops further as I expect, unders at 37 or below are 21-6-1 (78%) the last four calendar years.
Thursday night looks ugly. Grab the under.
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Is this the best international game ever? That epic Mahomes vs. Goff 54-51 battle comes to mind, but that was actually scheduled for Mexico City but ended up being played stateside.
This one should be a doozy, and all the focus will be on the two elite offenses — and Miami might have the better attack this season. But my focus is on the other side of the ball, and that's where the big mismatch is in this game. Miami's defense was good Sunday against New England but has been pretty bad on the season, while Kansas City's defense entered the weekend top five against the pass and overall by DVOA.
Kansas City is the more rounded, holistic team, and the Chiefs have proven they can beat opponents in any number of ways. The Dolphins have not. They look like frontrunner bullies, beating up on bad teams but losing to the Eagles by 14 and the Bills by 28. Miami actually hasn't beaten a team with a winning record at the time since Week 3 of last season!
I'm not worried about Mahomes coming off one of the worst games of his career, playing with the flu and gashes on his non-throwing hand. Everyone gets a bad day, and Mahomes is 14-3 SU after a loss. If anything, it's Miami's injuries that should be a concern. The Dolphins were missing their LT, LG, and C again Sunday and the offense hasn't been the same with the line injuries, while Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland were missing in the secondary too.
International favorites in games not featuring the Jaguars are 22-9 ATS (71%). Makes sense, right? It's a neutral field, so just take the team we know is better. We don't get many chances to bet on Mahomes with a short spread like this. For his career, when Mahomes is anything besides a 3.5-point or more favorite, he's 14-4-1 ATS (78%).
Give me Mahomes, and give me the Chiefs defense. Miami is gonna have to prove it against one of these good opponents before I believe.
