Tyson Bagent
Under 188.5 Passing Yards (-129)
Bagent’s average throw has only traveled six yards downfield, which the lowest rate of all qualified QBs.
I expect the Bears to have a very conservative gameplan with him considering he’s thrown multiple interceptions in back-to-back games. The Bears are 3.5-point favorites and should lean on the run against a Panthers defense that ranks 14th in DVOA against the pass, but 32nd against the run.
Weather wise, there might be 15-mph-plus winds, which would make it even less likely for Chicago to throw the ball downfield.
Bagent's also been much more willing to use his legs, as he scrambled five times in his last game.
All of these factors favor the under and I’m projecting his median closer to 173.5 with a 61% chance he stays under 186.5 passing yards. While I have two additional props I like for this game, the under for Bagent is my favorite of the trio.
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DJ Moore
Longest Reception Under 21.5 (-125)
A few weeks ago, I took Moore to go over this prop on TNF and he cleared it on the third play of the game. The difference between then and now is the quarterback situation with Tyson Bagent starting in place of an injured Justin Fields.
Bagent hasn’t been targeting Moore downfield as much and he’s had the lowest depth of target among qualified QBs on the season.
Of the 12 receptions Moore has that have gone 21-plus yards, 11 have come from Fields and one from Bagent.
I’m projecting Moore’s median closer to 18.5 with about a 62% chance to stay under 20.5.
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Xavier Woods
Under 4.5 Tackles + Assists (+110)
Woods, Carolina's free safety, is questionable with a thigh injury so there's a chance he doesn't play every snap. He also tends to play deep safety at least 60% of the time, and that could be even higher if Vonn Bell returns tonight.
It’s going to be a tough matchup for Woods to rack up tackles as the deep safety because Bagent doesn't really attack downfield and is only projected for 18.5 completions.
Plus, the Panthers home scorekeeper hands out assists at the highest rate in the league — like the Oprah meme, “You get an assist!” The Bears scorekeepers, on the other hand, are a bit stingier.
I'm projecting Woods closer to four tackles and assists with a 58% chance to stay under, so I like the fact we are getting +110.
