I've won my last 15 bets and am coming off of a 14-0 Week 2. We're thriving and I'm excited for this game tonight.
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Now, here's my Patriots vs. Jets player prop for tonight.
Koerner's Prop Pick: Jacoby Brissett Under 16.5 Completions (-110)
Through the first two weeks of the season, one of the bigger stories has been how inefficient passing around the NFL has been and how efficient the running game has been.
The Patriots have been thriving in this environment because they've been a very run-heavy team under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. New England has a -9% pass rate over expected and isn't trying to hide its intention to run either. The Pats have used formations with six or more offensive linemen on a league-high 26 plays so far and ran the ball 25 times out of those formations.
New England has essentially been saying, “We are going to run the ball, try to stop us.” It’s been working so far. The Patriots upset the Bengals in Week 1 and nearly did the same on Sunday to the Seahawks but lost in overtime.
The Pats have a couple of starting O-linemen ruled out tonight, but their backups aren’t really much of a drop off. Patriots left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow have been ruled out, and rookies Caeden Wallace and Michael Jordan will step in.
New England's offensive line has really struggled in pass protection. Jacoby Brissett has faced pressure on 44% of his dropbacks, which is the second-highest rate in the NL, while the Jets have generated the highest pressure rate (46%).
I’m guessing the Pats don't want Brissett dropping back too much tonight with him expected to face a ton of pressure and throw much against one of the best secondaries in the league. By facing so much pressure it could limit the number of pass attempts he gets off since he'll likely be scrambling and getting sacked at a higher rate than usual.
I’m projecting Brissett closer to 15.8 completions with around a 60% chance to stay under that. I think the underlying factors probably make it even more likely than that.
