Since gambling has existed, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay tonight for Vikings vs. Rams.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 or better odds to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay built at DraftKings.
Vikings vs. Rams Parlay for Thursday Night Football
- Vikings -2.5 (-122)
- Cooper Kupp Under 6.5 Receptions (+110)
- Kyren Williams Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Full Rams vs. Vikings Parlay Odds: +950 (+1264 Boosted) | $10 Bet Wins $95
Vikings -2.5 (-122)
Rumors surfaced this week that the Rams are open to trading wide receiver Cooper Kupp, which isn't a great sign for how they feel about their season moving forward. The 2-4 Rams have struggled with injuries to the position this season, especially on offense, leading to just 19 points scored per game.
If Los Angeles really is shopping Kupp, it wouldn't make much sense to activate him this week as the risk of re-aggravating his injury could scare away potential buyers.
On top of that, the Vikings are clearly the better team. They were a last-second Lions field goal away from a 6-0 record and are at worst the second-best team in the NFC.
Minnesota is also getting healthier, with a sparse injury report and the potential return of tight end T.J. Hockenson. Getting Minnesota inside of the key number of -3 against the Rams feels like a gift, even if we're paying a bit of extra juice to do so.
Cooper Kupp Under 6.5 Receptions (+110)
Given that we already bet the Vikings against the spread, we aren't getting great odds by including "negative" Rams props in the parlay. However, the +110 line on Kupp's receptions under helps mitigate that to an extent.
Minnesota has the No. 1 ranked passing defense by DVOA, and the Rams rank 20th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season. Additionally, as mentioned above, it's somewhat likely that Kupp's reps are limited in order to protect his trade value for the Rams.
If Kupp ends up inactive, Matthew Stafford's under 22.5 completions prop (-105) is my favorite alternate. Those are the two best values in our Props Tool for the game with similar logic on both.
Kyren Williams Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The corollary to my bearish stance on the Rams passing game is some optimism for their rushing attack.
Los Angeles has been heavily committed to the run with Kyren Williams serving as perhaps the last true workhorse back in the NFL. Williams has accounted for 76.8% of the Rams rushing attempts — 15% more than any other player in the NFL — and 45.9% of their overall touches which also leads the league.
My preferred option here would actually be Williams rushing attempt over of 18.5 (FanDuel has 17.5 as of Wednesday night), but that's unfortunately not available in DraftKings SGPs. Still, Williams has cleared this line in four straight games, so I'm comfortable with it as well.
What's even better is the impact this has on the odds. By including a positive Rams pick, we get all the way to +950 odds — or +1264 if using DraftKings' SGP boost for Thursday Night Football.
Full Rams vs. Vikings Parlay Odds: +950 (+1264 Boosted) | $10 Bet Wins $95
