I have already laid out a pair of edges I like for Monday Night Football tonight, but I've identified my favorite NFL prop for the game.
While I see value on Tanner Hudson and Jalen Tolbert unders, I find myself liking a fade of Rico Dowdle most of all for Bengals vs. Cowboys.
Let's get into it.
Rico Dowdle is coming off the best two-game stretch of his career, going for 19/86/0 and 22/112/1 on the ground in the Cowboys' last two games, both wins, over the Commanders and Giants. However, the Cowboys were able to lean on the run against two teams that struggle to defend the opposition's ground game.
The Bengals are another easy matchup for Dowdle since they rank 26th in DVOA against the run. However, after doing some digging into this matchup, I think there is some sneaky value on his under.
When it comes to a rushing projection, my starting point is always projecting the team’s total rushing attempts. Based on the fact the Cowboys are 4.5-point underdogs and their PROE since Cooper Rush took over as the starter in Week 10, I’m projecting the Cowboys to run it 23.5 times tonight.
If the Cowboys get a double-digit-point lead early, they'll have way more rushing attempts and this prop is likely toast. I’m projecting the Bengals to be more likely to play with the lead in this game, which should force the Cowboys to be more pass-heavy than the last two weeks.
Yes, the Bengals run defense has been vulnerable this season, but they’ve actually been solid against runs inside the tackles. Cincinnati has only allowed 7% of those runs to go for 10 or more yards, one of the lowest rates in the league.
Dowdle has run inside at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL this season. He also handles a high percentage of his rush attempts from the shotgun formation, the fifth-highest rate in the league. The Bengals have been much better on those runs, allowing just 3.6 yards a run on designed runs from shotgun (second lowest in the NFL) compared to 4.8 per rush under center (eighth highest).
The Cowboys have also been fairly pass-heavy on first downs and second-and-short situations, but they're pretty run-heavy on second down when it's three or more yards to gain. The Bengals have been solid when teams run on second-and-3 or more, allowing 3.7 yards a run, the sixth lowest in the NFL.
Dowdle obviously dominates the Cowboys run game right now over Ezekiel Elliott, but Dallas will also give fullback Hunter Luepke and wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin some carries, as well as even Trey Lance sometimes. All of that can chip away at Dowdle's usage.
Cincinnati has been coughing up a ton of receiving yards to running backs, and I think that may be a way Dowdle racks up chunk gains tonight.
I’m projecting Dowdle closer to 62.5 and around a 60% chance he stays under 67.5.
