Michael Badgley
Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105, DraftKings)
The Panthers have given up just 1.43 field goals per game in games without Baker Mayfield playing the majority of snaps compared to 2.43 per game with Mayfield as the main QB. That's because the Panthers are controlling the ball much better, with 31:10 time of possession in non-Mayfield games compared to just 24:53 in Mayfield games. With Sam Darnold starting at QB, the Panthers have controlled the ball for an average of 33:23.
In addition, Carolina's defense is inefficient enough that they allow significantly more TDs than field goals, helping keep field goal attempt numbers down.
So while Badgley is averaging 2.0 FG per game, he takes a significant hit facing a Panthers team that's been much better at controlling the ball without Mayfield that mainly gives up touchdowns.
Add in cold weather, and a bit of wind (11 mph forecast) and we have Badgley projected to attempt 1.7 field goals, while making just 1.4. That translates to staying under 59.4% of the time. I'd bet this number to -120.
Robbie Gould
Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (+110, BetMGM)
Robbie Gould has just 24 FG attempts in 14 games, for an average of 1.71 per game. Meanwhile, the Commanders have allowed just 1.75 FG attempts per game in games which Taylor Heinicke has started. By comparing those to the league average of 1.96 FG attempts per game it's going to be hard to see Gould averaging over 1.8 over the long run in this game, and that's being generous.
Even at 1.8 attempts and an 82% FG rate, Gould would average just 1.48 FG made per game. That translates to a probability of staying under 56.6% of the time, and we're getting +110 odds to stay under. I'd bet this to -110.
