For an unders guy like me, the Buffalo Bills seemed to be a team to stay away from across September and October.
In their first five games, Buffalo averaged 30.4 points per game.
But as the season went on, a very distinct pattern emerged.
You see, the Bills are a completely different engine in Buffalo compared to being on foreign soil.
Through the first 12 weeks, the Bills are averaging 28.1 points a game, second to the Kansas City Chiefs.
But, here's the rub…
At home, the Bills average 34 points a game, No. 1 in the league. On the road, 24.7 points.
That points differential of 9.3 points is the second-largest in the league, only behind the Detroit Lions, which are 12.1 points better at home than on the road.
Points are not absolute of course. It depends what the bookmakers set the line at and what the public and sharps push the line towards. How have they handled the Bills on the road? By overestimating them.
The Bills are the only team in the league which is 6-0 in unders on the road. And that's on the closing line value, too, which has often been far lower than the number sharps get in at.
Then you have New England, which isn't scoring more points at home. In fact, the Patriots' 21 points per game at Gillette Stadium is 1.3 points fewer than what they've scored on the road.
What do you have? A perfect night for another primetime under.
The line is at 43.5. But I'm always nervous about a 24-21 final score, the seventh-most common score in NFL history. So let's buy some points and feel safer.
Take the under 45.5 at -145 at BetMGM.
