The Seattle Seahawks saw their 2022 Super Bowl odds plummet from +2500 to +8000 after Russell Wilson underwent surgery on the middle finger of his throwing hand, reportedly sidelining him until at least Week 10 — a decline in implied probability of 3.8% to 1.2% (convert more betting odds here).
Now that we know how sportsbooks are pricing the drop-off from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith in the futures market, how much does the quarterback change impact our expert's power ratings? Three of the six minds that power our NFL PRO Projections weigh in.
» What are NFL PRO Projections? We blend the statistical models of six experts to project consensus spreads, over/unders and moneylines for each NFL game. We then use those consensus projections to identify any edges based on current odds.
Seahawks Odds & Projections: Russell Wilson vs. Geno Smith
Stuckey: I had the Seahawks power rated as slightly above average before the Russell Wilson injury. Now, this might be a bottom-five team as I have the drop-off between Russ and Geno at about 6-7 points, depending on the game.
There’s a reason Russ is in the discussion for MVP every season — he does so much to elevate this team that has serious flaws on defense and issues along the offensive line, especially in the interior. Now, it’s basically a good group of wide receivers hoping a backup QB can get them the ball to keep up with opponents that should continue to shred their defense.
Not ideal.
Raheem Palmer: I'm pricing the downgrade from Wilson to Smith in the same range that I priced the downgrade from Aaron Rodgers to Brett Hundley or DeShone Kizer in 2016-18 — we're looking at around a 8.5- to 9-point drop-off.
Wilson covered up a bad offensive line, conservative play-calling and poor defense for a Seahawks team that would probably be among the worst in the league without their veteran signal caller.
Travis Reed: I have the Seahawks rated as the 13th-best team with Wilson. Now, they're all the way down to the 29th-rated team with Smith.
I'm in a similar range as Raheem in terms of the drop-off — I think the only starting QBs to backups with a bigger drop-off in win probability would be Tom Brady to Blaine Gabbert, Kyler Murray to Colt McCoy and Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley.
