Since gambling has existed, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay tonight for Broncos vs. Saints.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 or better odds to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Saints vs. Broncos parlay built at DraftKings.
Saints vs. Broncos Parlay
- Under 37 (-110)
- Denver -3 (-102)
- Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times No (+115)
- Alvin Kamara Anytime TD (-110)
Full Saints vs. Broncos Parlay Odds: +2700 | $10 Bet Wins $270
Thursday Night Football Over/Under Pick
Under 37 (-110)
This is a pretty obvious starting point for this parlay. You don't need to tell me twice to take a primetime under, especially deeper into the season on a Thursday. The NFL seems to find a way to get all of the worst games on Thursday nights, this time featuring two rookie quarterbacks.
One team (Denver) has been terrible offensively all season, while the other (New Orleans) is likely to be without their starting quarterback, two top wide receivers and at least one offensive lineman.
It's hard to see where points come from in this one, and it fits a strong trend. Since 2019, games with a total of 37 or below hit the under more than 70% of the time per Brandon Anderson on our Week 6 NFL Recap podcast.
Plus, from a parlay standpoint, it means we can get some juicy odds by including any positive offensive props in the mix.
NFL Prediction Against the Spread
Denver -3 (-102)
Remember all of those key Saints players who are unlikely to play on Thursday? They stand in stark contrast to the Broncos injury report. Just one player was a DNP in practice on Tuesday: cornerback Patrick Surtain.
While the loss of Surtain certainly hurts, New Orleans is probably missing its two top wide receivers, so that's still a net positive for Denver. I don't trust the Broncos enough to make this pick independent of an SGP but for our purposes, it's worth including.
This is partially because DraftKings, which has the best odds on the under, are one of the first books to move this line to -3. That's a bad thing in some ways but since we're getting that line at lower juice, it gives us better odds on the overall parlay.
NFL Game Prop: Thursday Night Football
Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times No (+115)
This used to be one of my favorite props, as sportsbooks would list it at the exact same price in every game regardless of the spread or total. That's unfortunately no longer the case since they've widely caught on to the fact that lower-total games are far more likely to hit the "no" side of the prop than the yes.
For that reason, this bet is rarely worth taking on its own — but it's worth a look here.
That's because it correlates heavily with the under we've already taken, but that doesn't seem to be factored into the parlay odds. These three picks together bring us to a solid +650 — or +865 if taking advantage of DraftKings' TNF SGP boost.
I'll be making that bet using the boost and adding a touchdown prop.
Alvin Kamara Touchdown Scorer Player Prop
Alvin Kamara Anytime TD (-110)
Obviously, in a parlay where we take the under and expect the Broncos to win, we're going to get a massive boost by including a Saints anytime touchdown scorer. Given the state of their offense this week, who else but Alvin Kamara?
Kamara should be given as many touches as he can handle this week, against a Broncos team that defends the pass better than the run. I have my concerns about the Saints offensive line, but Kamara can do it on his own if need be.
The real appeal though is the odds, which swell to a massive +2700 by including this prop. Is it especially likely that all four picks hit? Probably not — but it's likelier than those massive odds imply.
Full Saints vs. Broncos Parlay Odds: +2700 | $10 Bet Wins $270
