Monday Night Football for NFL Week 16 features the New Orleans Saints (5-9) and the Green Bay Packers (10-4). Kickoff from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Let’s dive into my Saints vs Packers player props and my NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Saints vs Packers Player Props
- Josh Jacobs Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-128, FanDuel)
- Kendre Miller Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115, bet365)
- Packers Defense Anytime Touchdown (+600, FanDuel)
Josh Jacobs Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-128)
You’re not getting a huge price, but Josh Jacobs over 19.5 rushing attempts feels like the most obvious play ahead of MNF.
Firstly, the Packers are really leaning on him right now; he’s scored nine of their 18 touchdowns over the past five weeks since the bye. He’s the team’s best threat inside the 20 and they’ll continue to ride him.
Then you need to factor in that the Packers are big 14-point favorites, so they will likely look to run the clock once they’ve built up a reasonable lead.
Over the past seven games, Jacobs has only had 20+ carries three times. But if you subtract the games they lost — when they had to heavily throwing the ball — then it changes to three of five games.
There's clearly a pattern that they lean heavier on him when winning, something they should be doing Monday.
Kendre Miller Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The narrative of game script is also at play with our selection of taking the under on Kendre Miller’s rushing yards total of 53.5.
If the Saints are down big, which the books believe is likely, then we’re going to see the Saints throwing a lot more.
While this is Miller’s first game without Alvin Kamara, meaning he would likely have a bigger workload, we need to appreciate that this is a very good Packers run defense, ranking in the top 10.
We’re yet to see any evidence of Miller being able to handle a massive workload and it feels like a risk given the quality of defense he’ll be up against.
Packers Defense Anytime Touchdown (+600)
Speaking of that Green Bay defense, we’re also going to back them to score a touchdown.
The Packers have one of the league’s best units. They’re ranked ninth in terms of least scrimmage yards allowed and eighth in DVOA. However, what really leaps out is how good they’ve been at forcing turnovers, with 26 in total (fourth most in the NFL), including 14 interceptions.
Their average of an interception per game is very attractive given that they’re up against a quarterback who has two interceptions in three starts.
Spencer Rattler has a point to prove, and if you combine that with likely playing from behind, you can see that he’s got a very high chance of taking risky throws that can be picked off.
Green Bay has only returned one interception for a touchdown all season, way back in Week 3, but this could be a golden chance to do it again. At +600, it’s worth the gamble.
