There are two NFL player prop bets offering value on Saturday, involving Jets-Texans (4:30 p.m. ET) and Browns-Broncos (8:20 p.m. ET).
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which takes each prop listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner — the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Saturday
Jets QB Sam Darnold
The Pick: Under 7.5 rushing yards (-115)
Overall, Darnold isn't much of a runner. Through his 10 games this season, his 28 rush attempts have gone as follows (per Sports Info Solutions):
- Designed rush attempts: two
- QB sneaks: five
- QB draw: one
- Scrambles: nine
- QB kneels: 11
When you take out the kneels, Darnold is averaging just 1.7 rushing attempts per game.
So the under is certainly intriguing, especially when he's presently projected for 6.3 rushing yards in the FantasyLabs Prop tool.
And maybe I'm just a sick pup, but sweating single-digit quarterback rushing props is one of the best sweats you can put yourself through.
Browns WR Antonio Callaway
The Pick: Under 3.0 receptions (+100)
Since Freddie Kitchens took over as the play-caller for the Browns, the target share in the Browns' offense has been relatively spread out.
Callaway owns just 12.5% of the market share of targets since Hue Jackson's firing. That comes out to 3.8 targets per game.
Additionally, Callaway's 14% drop rate is the fifth-highest mark among receivers who have at least 30 targets this season, per Pro Football Focus.
With the even-money odds, and his mediocre target share, I like the under.
