Steelers vs. Dolphins Picks
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Derek Farnsworth: The Dolphins have lost three games in a row, but have started three different quarterbacks over that run. They are expecting to have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup this week, which should provide a nice jolt for the offense.
This is a classic sell-high spot on the Steelers, as they somehow beat the Buccaneers at home last week. Pittsburgh hasn't been able to run the ball, half of its defense is injured and I don't trust either of their quarterbacks on the road.
I expect the Dolphins to bounce back in a big way.
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Brandon Anderson: Pardon the pun, but this line smells fishy.
There's just no great reason Miami should be getting this much respect. This line should be on the other side of that key number at least, and the Dolphins have major injury question marks. We don't know if LT Terron Armstead is ready, which corners will play, and what in the world to expect from Tua Tagovailoa.
This line is begging us to take the Steelers. Why? Pittsburgh just got a huge upset win over the Bucs as double-digit underdogs, and the Steelers cleared Kenny Pickett, Pat Freiermuth, and Levi Wallace from concussion protocol. The Steelers are the healthier team and Miami has lost three straight and hasn't won comfortably since the opener.
One big worry for the Steelers is that they've given up explosive pass plays, and that's why I'm buying before the game on Tyreek Hill to win OPOY at +1600. But that alone isn't enough to make this Dolphins by more than a TD.
Is this another Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot? He's now 38-15-1 ATS (72%) as an underdog Week 5 forward in his career.
I wondered how the trend held up after a big win the previous week. When Tomlin's guys covered the previous game by double digits, he's 11-2-1 ATS (85%) as an underdog the following week, including 9-5 SU, a 50% ROI. The trend holds, and then some.
I'm riding with one other more specific Tomlin motivational trend.
Tomlin went out on a limb this offseason by hiring a somewhat controversial defensive assistant coach. That'd be Brian Flores, who had an extremely ugly exit after three years with the Dolphins.
Flores knows this Miami roster inside and out, and you know this particular game means everything to him and, by extension, to Tomlin and the team.
I just can't get past the Flores angle. This might be Pittsburgh's Super Bowl.
The Pick(s): Steelers +7.5 (Lean) and Steelers ML +290 |
