I've found my NFL player props for Monday Night Football tonight.
For Steelers vs. Giants, I'm fading an All-Pro safety in the tackles market and backing a Steelers playmaker for a big night in a specific market.
Let's get into my NFL props for tonight.
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NFL Player Prop Picks: Minkah Fitzpatrick & Jaylen Warren
Steelers-Giants Prop: Minkah Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick has cleared this number in four of six games this season. Those four games, though, were against teams that allow an above-average number of tackles to opposing safeties. The two times he stayed under, those teams allowed a below-average number to his position.
Fitzpatrick tends to play deep most of the time, so he'll be in on explosive plays by RBs (which Giants don’t provide without Saquon Barkley), tight end catches over the middle (Theo Johnson doesn’t provide many) or deep shots. He’s allowed a 81% catch rate as the nearest defender, 10% higher than expected, and he typically has been in the 55% range throughout his career. That means he's due for fewer passes his way that get completed.
Fitzpatrick is still going to get a handful of tackles, but I think this is a tad too high given the matchup. I'm projecting him closer to 5.8 tackles with around a 63% chance he stays under 6.5.
Steelers-Giants Prop: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has had a rough season to date, having dealt with a knee injury that held him out two games and Cordarrelle Patterson eating into his role early in the season. Patterson remains out, though, and Warren may be the healthiest he’s been all season heading into this game.
With that, I think this is a good time to buy low on Warren.
Warren actually outsnapped Najee Harris in the first half last week, and I think we could see a similar game plan against the Giants. People on Harris overs will be cursing at offensive coordinator Arthur Smith on social media during the first half if this ends up being the case again.
It’s a good matchup for Warren on the ground since the Giants have allowed the highest explosive run rate in the league. I think with Russell Wilson under center he should also be more involved in the passing game. Justin Fields scrambles at a high rate as opposed to dumping it off to his running back, while Wilson tends to throw deep or dump it off to his backs.
We saw that a bit last game, but I think he checks down to Warren a bit more here.
I like taking his rushing + receiving yds prop because it’s sort of game-script proof, and we will benefit from an explosive play or two from either rushing or receiving.
I'm projecting his median closer to 53.5 with around a 60% chance he clears 47.5.
