Packers vs. Buccaneers, Lions vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Seahawks and two other games fit an NFL prediction trend that targets road underdogs.
Since 2018, road underdogs have gone 366-294-19 against the spread (ATS) for a 7.2% ROI. That's a total profit of about $5,000 for $100 per game bettors.
Betting every road underdog ATS this season has gone 9-7 for a return of $123 for a 7.7% ROI that's relatively consistent with the historical trend.
This is a general trend — do keep in mind that variance is a constraint in sports betting, especially relative to the stock market or otherwise.
But similar principles between investing and these betting algorithms exist in regards to long-term time horizons and sample sizes.
For Sunday, here is the full list of road underdogs, their spreads, and which sportsbook is providing the best odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Texans (+3) vs. Bears. PointsBet (-107).
- Lions (+7) vs. Vikings. BetRivers (-136, alt line).
- Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Chargers. FanDuel (-105).
- Falcons (+1) vs. Seahawks. PointsBet (+100, ML).
- Packers (+1.5) vs. Buccaneers. BetRivers (+106, ML).
For the Falcons and Packers, the number at +1 or +1.5 is too low for me to bother.
Only about 3% of NFL games since 2010 have finished with a one-point margin, according to our metrics. In return, you're giving up about 15% in value by taking the spread over the moneyline in Packers vs. Bucs.
For Falcons vs. Seahawks, you'd be giving up about 9% of value by taking the spread. All that for a roughly +3500 shot the game finishes with a one-point margin.
The first two games listed kickoff at 1 p.m. ET. The remaining three all kickoff in the late afternoon window.
