With the launch of The Favorites' NFL pick 'em contest, which is free to play, we decided on tiebreaker props to settle the winners of the $3,000 in weekly prizes.
Week 8 was fun and proved to be a challenge as no one was able to nail the exact number of total passing yards on Monday Night Football — all guesses within 16 yards of the total were paid out. It went about as predicted, with Detroit easily covering the spread and the passing yardage total falling well short of what we'd expect from quarterback projections.
In Week 9, we're back to rushing yards, where we can again correlate our guess with the spread pick, if selecting that game. Let's get into it.
Important note: You can sign up for this contest at any point during the season.
Week 9 Tiebreaker: Total Rushing Yards — Chargers vs. Jets (Monday Night Football)
We'll be using averages from both teams in terms of rushing yards produced and allowed, and then compare that to the league average to come up with our baseline. From there, we can look a little deeper to some alternate contrarian angles, including how the total is likely to correlate with either team covering the spread.
Both teams are within a handful of rushing yards from the league average of 109 offensively. However, on defense, the Chargers have been way better than average, allowing just under 90 yards. That's notable because their 3-4 record implies they've been in plenty of games where the opponents could run the ball if they were finding any success.
On the other hand, the Jets rank 31st in rushing yards allowed at over 140 yards per game despite their winning record (4-3). When we run the math on both teams' rates offensively and defensively, we come up with a base projection of around 230 yards as the median outcome in a neutral game script.
My Recommendation: Around 270 Yards
Of course, this game won't necessarily be played with a neutral game script. The team records are a bit misleading as the Jets have a negative point differential on the season while the Chargers are positive. This is also illustrated by our Luck Rankings, where the fortunate Jets check in at No. 5.
The biggest hint as to how this game is likeliest to play out are the odds, which have the Chargers as three-point road favorites.
Given that the Jets have allowed far more rushing yards than the Chargers — and that L.A.'s offensive numbers are artificially low due to Austin Ekeler missing time — I'm expecting this one to skew higher than the baseline rates suggest. Assuming it roughly aligns with the spread, the Chargers should be able to run the ball a bit more than they have.
That means the optimal strategy would be to come in well ahead of the bulk of your competitors' answers — especially if taking the Chargers spread. An L.A. cover likely correlates well to more yards on the ground, while the Jets correlate with less.
If you're picking the Jets to cover, I'd take my guess about 40 yards in the opposite direction from the 230 baseline. That would give you a total of around 190.
Remember, if you get the game script wrong (while picking this game) it doesn't matter what you choose for a tiebreaker — since you need to go 5-for-5 to have a shot at cashing anyway.
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