What was supposed to be a Monday night walkover turned into a giant AFC playoff picture domino effect when Trevor Lawrence went out injured and the Jaguars were stunned in an overtime loss.
C.J. Beathard and Jake Browning led their teams into overtime tied at 31 after Josh Allen intercepted a Tyler Boyd pass with the 1-seed in the AFC up for grabs in a pivotal December game. Imagine how many bar bets you could've won if you had predicted that NFL Mad Libs sentence a few months ago.
But that's exactly what we got in a wild, unpredictable Monday Night Football game that ended with the Bengals kicking a game-winning field goal to keep their faint playoff hopes alive and upend the AFC playoff picture.
Browning was magnificent for Cincinnati, completing 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards in relief of the injured Joe Burrow, with Ja'Marr Chase catching 11 balls for 146 yards, including a 76-yard score.
The Bengals pulled to 6-6, one win back in the AFC Wild Card picture, but Cincinnati was not the story Monday night.
After Browning snuck in a touchdown to the tie game with under 10 minutes left, dissecting a Jaguars defense that had been so strong all season, Trevor Lawrence took the field.
Lawrence had a fine game himself and immediately responded, hitting Evan Engram for 21 yards before Zay Jones caught a 24-yard pass as the Jaguars moved quickly into scoring position.
Then, disaster struck.
On third down at the Bengals' 23, Lawrence dropped back, pumped once, then got his right ankle stepped on by a retreating Walker Little. Lawrence was helped up, took one step, then crumpled to the ground and slammed his helmet angrily into the turf in pain as a rabid Duval crowd went dead silent.
Lawrence left the game and did not come back, and neither did the Jaguars. Jacksonville lost in overtime, and reports after the game indicated a sprained ankle for Lawrence, with further testing to come Thursday to determine the severity.
Player reactions can be a tricky gauge, but it certainly looked like a high ankle sprain — the type that could mean Lawrence missing several weeks, if not longer.
And if Lawrence does miss time — even a couple weeks — it will have huge implications on the entire AFC playoff picture.
Lawrence's Absence Could Doom Jaguars
Jacksonville lost as double-digit favorites, dropping to 8-4. Suddenly, what was supposed to be a fun, freebie win has left the Jaguars just one game up on the Texans and Colts in the division.
Beathard filled in for Lawrence in relief. Beathard is 2-10 lifetime as an NFL starter, and those starts came for quarterback guru Kyle Shanahan. If Shanahan can't even conjure wins from Beathard, Press Taylor and Jacksonville's offense may not stand a chance.
Replacing Lawrence with Beathard drops the Jaguars from No. 14 to No. 27 in my offense rankings.
That drops Jacksonville from 11th to 19th overall as a team — likely further, considering how Lawrence elevates a terrible offensive line and how much a bad offense can hamper a good defense (see also: Jets).
There's never a good time to lose your franchise quarterback, but this would be particularly cruel timing for Jacksonville. The Jaguars play five days from now in Cleveland against what might be the league's best defense. Jacksonville was a road 3-point favorite before the Lawrence injury, but that line could quickly flip to something like Browns -3 if Lawrence is out.
After that Browns matchup is a Sunday night home game against the mighty Ravens. Heading into Monday, that game looked like a pivotal matchup for the AFC 1-seed.
Without Lawrence, it becomes an opportunity for Baltimore to bury the Jaguars.
If Lawrence is limited or out and the Jaguars suddenly lose those two games, they drop to 8-6 and likely move outside the playoff picture with three weeks to play. From there, it's the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans — still winnable enough to get into the playoffs if Lawrence is healthy by then, but even those games aren't freebies, especially with two of them on the road.
The Jaguars came into the night knowing that a win made them the 1-seed heading into Week 14. They leave wondering if they'll even make the playoffs and knowing they have zero hope of doing anything useful there without Lawrence even if they do make it.
AFC South Might Be Wide Open
The Jaguars still lead the AFC South at 8-4, but the Colts and Texans could be smelling blood at 7-5.
Suddenly, Jacksonville's escape in Houston a week ago looks massive — a key win that split the season matchup and took the Jaguars to 4-1 in the division.
Win that season finale in Tennessee a month from now, and Jacksonville will clinch any division tiebreaker over both Indianapolis and Houston.
It's all speculative, but if we assume Lawrence can at least return by New Year's Eve to face the Panthers at home and the Jags win in Tennessee, that puts Jacksonville at 10 wins with a division tiebreak. That might be enough for the division, or it might leave Jacksonville a game short.
Houston and Indianapolis entered Monday as serious long shots to win the division, both listed at 10-to-1 or longer at books, but each team has real life now.
Houston's remaining five games all come against quarterbacks who did not open the season as the starter, and Indianapolis doesn't play a team above .500 until the season finale: a home game against the Texans.
If the Lawrence injury is serious, that Week 18 game could be for a division title. The Colts won the first meeting, so winning again would clinch the tiebreak. That gives Indianapolis a leg up.
Houston likely needs to win that one to take the division, and the tiebreaker scenarios get messy from there.
Both the Texans and Colts entered the day with around 4% odds of winning the division, per FTN. If Lawrence misses even two weeks, those odds skyrocket and open the door for a home playoff game.
AFC Playoff Race Just Turned Upside Down
The Jaguars entered the day at 98% to make the playoffs at FTN, but they might have ended the night in the 2% part of that scenario if the Lawrence injury news is bad.
If Lawrence is out, there's a very real chance the Jaguars don't make it past 10 wins, if that. We may have just lost an AFC playoff team from an overcrowded field.
That's potentially good news for everyone else.
Come Sunday, four of the seven current AFC playoff teams could be starting a backup quarterback. That means life for the Colts and Texans in the Wild Card race, plus a little more life for the Steelers, Browns, Bills, Broncos and anyone else desperate for a spot, including those Bengals.
The Browns are direct winners since they host Jacksonville next week.
You have to figure Lawrence is at least hampered in that one, even if he plays, giving the Browns a chance to ride their defense and steal a win that didn't look likely entering Monday. Cleveland is 7-5, one game behind Jacksonville. Win next week and the Browns tie the Jaguars in the standings and gain an important head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Ravens also look like potential winners.
Baltimore heads to Jacksonville in Week 15, just 13 days after Lawrence's ankle injury. The Ravens sat at home and watched this week as both the Jaguars and Chiefs lost a game, leaving Baltimore tied with Miami for the AFC's 1-seed.
Both teams have a daunting closing schedule, but removing Lawrence from the equation would soften Baltimore's schedule immensely.
Baltimore was already the best AFC futures investment before the Lawrence injury. That position is only stronger after Jacksonville's loss and bad injury news.
The entire AFC playoff picture is impacted by a potential long-term injury for Lawrence, even if he ends up playing through it at less than 100%. Lawrence is the life of this Jaguars franchise, and Jacksonville can't be anywhere near its best without him healthy.
Even the NFC could see a slight shakeup. The Bucs are still only a game out in the awful NFC South and could benefit from an easier in-state matchup in a few weeks if Lawrence is out.
If you're counting at home, that's two division races, the AFC 1-seed and all three AFC Wild Card spots set to feel the aftershocks of any big Lawrence news.
One other final loser? NFL fans.
It's been a brutal season for quarterback injuries, and it just keeps getting worse.
We may be staring at a huge Beathard vs. Joe Flacco showdown on Sunday with major playoff implications. That's a potential playoff preview, too, the way things stand, and there are more goofy QB matchups to come.
Lawrence is one of the NFL's brightest young stars. We can debate winners and losers all we want, but at the end of the day, we're all losers if Lawrence can't lead the Jaguars down the stretch.
And now, we wait.
