The Minnesota Vikings (14-3) will face the Los Angeles Rams (10-7) on Monday, Jan. 13, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., in the last Wild Card game of the NFL playoffs. The game is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
Beyond spread and total bets, I'm looking at Vikings vs. Rams anytime touchdown scorers and have a pick for each team on Monday.
Here are my three anytime touchdown scorer bets for Monday night.
Vikings vs. Rams Anytime Touchdown Scorers
- Jordan AddisonAnytime Touchdown (+150)
- Cooper KuppAnytime Touchdown (+175)
- Tyler HigbeeAnytime Touchdown (+500)
Jordan Addison +150
I was wrong about Sam Darnold coming into the season. I thought he’d be a mere placeholder for the Vikings and struggle with turnovers and fail to capitalize on opportunities.
He looked better than I imagined all season. If Darnold can rinse the stink off from that Week 18 loss to the Lions, I think he and the whole Vikings pass offense should rebound on Monday.
The Rams defense has some obvious flaws, specifically on pass defense. They finished the season 25th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass, with 20 TDs allowed to WRs, which ranked 28th in the NFL. They also play zone at a top-five rate and are bottom five in defensive DVOA vs. the deep ball.
Once you consider all those factors, Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson (-105) and Jordan Addison (+150) are the two we should target for TD props. Of the two, I prefer Addison because we’re getting slightly better odds, and his profile fits almost as well as Jefferson's.
Addison had 4 TDs against zone defenses this season and no TDs against man coverage. He leads the team in average depth of target (aDOT) and saw his receiver metrics like Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and Yards Per Catch (YPC) go up when facing zone coverage as opposed to man.
If you prefer Jefferson, just make sure you get him at plus odds. There are some books hanging -115 for his TD prop, and that’s not enough value, in my opinion.
Cooper Kupp +175
Speaking of WRs destroying zone defenses, Rams WR Puka Nacua is from another planet.
Nacua has an insane 33.6% target share vs. zone defense this season, to go with a 3.59 YPRR, which both are head and shoulders above WR Cooper Kupp.
Now, that doesn’t mean we ignore Kupp this week because I’m intrigued by his value at +175. However, Nacua’s TD value has been sapped out of the equation, as he’s +110, when he should be closer to the same odds as Kupp.
If I’m picking between the two, I'd go with Kupp, but don’t be surprised when you see the box score after the game and Nacua has double the targets.
Tyler Higbee +500
My favorite long-shot pick for this game is Rams TE Tyler Higbee (+500). He returned in Week 16 after a knee injury from last year’s playoff game vs. the Lions and caught two TDs in three games.
The encouraging news was watching his snaps increase over those three weeks. He only played a handful of snaps fewer than starter Colby Parkinson, and of the 12 targets Higbee saw in those three games, six were in the red zone.
It will be a tough matchup for Higbee since the Vikings rank top eight in defensive DVOA vs. TEs, with only three TDs allowed.
However, when the Rams get to the red zone, the Vikings defense will be so focused on stopping Nacua, Kupp and Kyren Williams that Higbee could see extra looks.
Picks: Jordan Addison +150 | Cooper Kupp +175 | Tyler Higbee +500
