The Washington Commanders (13-5) and Detroit Lions (15-2) will face off in the NFL Divisional Round tonight at 8:00 p.m. EST at Ford Field in Detroit. The game will be live on FOX and can be streamed on platforms like YouTube TV.
Let's get into my Lions vs Commanders predictions and the latest odds, which have the Lions are favored by 9.5 points and the game total set at 55.5 (-110o / -110u). The Lions are -455 favorites to win outright, while the Commanders are +355 to pull off the upset.
Jayden Daniels faces the toughest test of his NFL career tonight. Although Daniels, Terry McLaurin and the Commanders offense have managed to put together many magical moments in the clutch, Detroit has been dominant all season. But can Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the electric Lions offense make up for their waning defense?
Commanders vs. Lions Odds, Prediction
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -112 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +355 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -108 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -455 |
- Commanders vs. Lions spread: Lions -8.5
- Commanders vs. Lions over/under: 55.5 points scored
- Commanders vs. Lions moneyline: Lions -455, Commanders +355
Spread Pick
I'm backing the Lions here. Detroit usually takes care of business at home, and a road playoff matchup indoors doesn't seem like an environment to back a rookie like Jayden Daniels, as impressive as he is.
I'm trusting the Lions to do what they've generally done under Dan Campbell: cover the spread. The line has moved to 9.5 at most books, which I would still play, but that's my limit. As of Friday night, DraftKings was the only sportsbook still posting 8.5.
Over/Under Projection
I'll pass on the total, which is one of the highest of the NFL season. The Lions will score, so it comes down to whether you think Daniels and the Commanders will be able to keep up.
My Pick: Lions -8.5
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Commanders vs. Lions Pick Against the Spread
Instead of facing an experienced team like the Rams that has played the Lions tough twice already in the past 12 1/2 months or the division-rival Vikings for a third time this season, the Commanders' upset means Detroit faces a rookie quarterback in the NFC Divisional Round.
Washington took out the Buccaneers last weekend, but doing the same to the 15-2 Lions will be a much, much taller task.
There are some things potentially working in the Commanders' favor. The Lions defense is getting healthier but still has nine players on injured reserve. Also, Detroit is man-heavy in its coverage, which has left it susceptible to rushing quarterbacks this season. The Lions allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs during the regular season.
On the other side of the ball, G Kevin Zeitler is going to be out for the Lions, although he may be the least important starter on the offensive line.
It's hard to see how the Commanders will be able to slow down the Lions offense. Detroit was the highest-scoring team in the league by about three points per game during the regular season with an especially strong rushing attack. The Commanders run defense ranked 26th in DVOA while facing the lowest opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the regular season.
That means if this one is going to be competitive, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will need to play near-perfect football, driving the field and avoiding the big negative plays the Lions defense has thrived on this season.
While the Lions defense hasn't had a ton of success at stopping their opponents outright, it has forced interceptions at a top-five rate with ball-hawking safety Kerby Joseph leading the league with nine. Avoiding mistakes against an opportunistic defense like the Lions is a tall order, especially for a rookie quarterback in a hostile environment like Ford Field.
I don't see Daniels being able to pull that off, especially behind a somewhat shaky offensive line. I also don't see the Lions letting up even if they get off to a big lead since they had three wins of at least 38 points during the regular season.
Considering how they've played this season, the 8.5-point spread seems low enough for the Lions to cover, and I'd take it down another point to 9.5 if need be.
My Pick: Lions -8.5 (-112)
Lions vs Commanders Betting Trends
