Let's get into my Commanders vs. Eagles prediction for the NFC Championship Game, which is backing the underdog.
The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles face off in the NFC Championship Game today 3 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast on FOX and can be streamed on YouTube TV live from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
The Commanders are looking for their first Super Bowl berth in more than 30 years, while the Eagles are out for their second NFC Championship Game win in three years. Jayden Daniels is coming off an electrifying performance against the Lions, while Jalen Hurts' health is uncertain.
The Eagles are 6-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread, with the game total set at 46.5 total points, down from 47.5 at the start of the day. Philadelphia is a -265 favorite to win outright, while Washington is +215 to pull off the upset.
Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction
Spread
I see too many red flags with the Eagles to not take at least six points with the Commanders.
The Eagles are one of the most conservative teams in the NFL, which I’d expect to especially be the case if Jalen Hurts is not 100%, while the Commanders are one of the more aggressive. Everything favors the underdog staying competitive so I’ll take the key number of six with Washington.
Over/Under
I project this total as 48 points. I don't see enough of an edge either way to bet on that.
My Pick: Commanders +6
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Commanders vs. Eagles Odds
Odds via DraftKings.
- Commanders vs. Eagles spread: Eagles -6 (-110)
- Commanders vs. Eagles over/under: 46.5 points scored (-112/ -108u)
- Commanders vs. Eagles moneyline: Eagles -265, Commanders +215
Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Preview
- 68% of bets and 64% of money on the spread are on the Commanders.
- 83% of bets and 76% of money on the total are on the OVER.
The Commanders have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, and the over has hit in 3 of those.
The Eagles have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games.
NFC Championship Game: Commanders vs. Eagles
I think the general market sentiment is that the Commanders have had a nice run but will likely be taken care of by the Eagles. The line has moved up, and now we’re at a key number of six.
Philadelphia has been outgained in both of its playoff games and in four of its last five games. While Saquon Barkley’s output against the Rams was impressive, there’s no reason to believe the Eagles offense as a whole has turned a corner.
The Eagles scored touchdowns on plays of 78, 62 and 44 yards against Los Angeles. Outside of those plays, they gained 166 yards on 58 plays for 2.9 yards per play.
Philly is living dangerously. Obviously, you can expect impressive long touchdown runs from Saquon Barkley here and there, but that’s not a sustainable recipe for success.
This offense has been very inconsistent. Part of the reason for that is Jalen Hurts, whose health is uncertain entering this game. Anything less than Hurts at 100%, which seems to be the case, is a big advantage for the Commanders.
Defensively, this game could come down to fourth-down conversions. The Eagles ranked 24th during the regular season in allowing 63% of opposing fourth-down attempts to convert. Washington is one of the best in the league.
The Eagles allowed Kyren Williams to average 5.3 yards per carry while Matthew Stafford, who usually struggles outdoors, almost led a comeback to win the game for the Rams. Los Angeles only scored 22 points, but there were a couple of turnovers that seemed to be hugely related to the weather that the Rams weren’t used to and benefited the Eagles.
When these teams first met back in Week 11, the Eagles contained the Commanders offense well on a Thursday night. Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury didn’t move Terry McLaurin around too much, and he was held to one catch. I don’t see that being the case again. Also, Washington was up 10-6 entering the fourth quarter in that game.
In the second matchup, Philadelphia was on its way to a blowout win before Hurts suffered a concussion. The defense, though, still got torched by Jayden Daniels. That part we can’t ignore.
Daniels has improved greatly since that first Eagles matchup and continues to trend up. He shouldn’t have to deal with the snow that the Rams did last week and will have a great opportunity to have a big game against an Eagles team that has a lot of question marks around it.
As an underdog, Daniels is 5-2-1 (71.4%) against the spread and has covered by 7.8 points per game. As a favorite of four or more points, Hurts is 15-20-2 (43%). Over the past two seasons, that record is just 6-12-1 for Hurts.
My Pick: Commanders +6 (-108)
Eagles vs. Commanders Weather
