Olympic Golf Round 4 Pick
With a gold medal and a legacy-altering result hanging in the balance at Le Golf National, I'm comfortable placing an outright ticket on golfers within four shots of the lead. Anything beyond that, I'll pass.
However, that doesn't mean I'm heading that far down the board.
There was a significant gap when comparing Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele to the rest of the field. Players who are striving to win an additional medal can come from slightly further back to accomplish the task, but my concern in the outright market came down to how the industry skews names like Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler on the odds board.
If you believe one of those two can make a run, the most encouraging item to see is that they ranked first and second in my model for "Expected Score" when taking "Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green" and adding it to their actual ball-striking marks.
I've talked a lot this week about Rahm and how my model loved his ability to traverse this venue. When I ran my baseline totals for him dating back an entire season, the Spaniard jumped into the same price range as Schaffuele and Scheffler for win equity.
It has taken a long time for Rahm to regain his form after a fiery exit to LIV and a cold start in 2024, but that top-10 showing from him at the Open Championship was needed to warrant the belief that Rahm was back to his typical stature.
His victory last week during the LIV event shrunk the odds marginally since it was the official puzzle piece most needed to jump back into the fray, myself included.
I think Rahm, at +210, is the best wager to consider in Sunday's outright market.
My model had him as a slight favorite over Schauffele, something that I don't take lightly as I've been on record all season saying that Schauffele is a true favorite in most of these fields.
Champions tend to show up when they are needed most, so don't be shocked if Rahm fully solidifies himself as back on top of the world on Sunday morning.
I also wouldn't ignore this quote from Rahm after his third-round performance.
"I haven’t been this comfortable on a golf course since the same stage last year," Rahm said. "So, it’s nice to get that back. It’s nice to have a whole month of good rounds going."
Olympic Golf Gold Medal Pick: Jon Rahm (+210)
