USA – Germany Preview, USA – Germany Pick
| USA Odds | +110 |
| Germany Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -112 |
The top spot in Group B is on the line when the U.S. women's national team squares off against Germany on match day 2 of the Olympic women's soccer tournament.
Both teams were 3-0 victors in their opening matches. The heavily favored Americans erupted early and then let their foot off the gas in their victory over 10-woman Zambia. The Germans relied on a pair of set piece goals to construct a statement-making triumph over Australia.
These teams are quite familiar with each other in recent years, though you have to go back to 2015 for their last meeting in a competitive fixture, a 2-0 U.S. win in a World Cup semifinal.
Here is my USA – Germany preview.
USA Picks
With the Americans storming to an early 3-0 lead and Zambia's numbers reduced in the 34th minute, it looked like things could get very lopsided in manager Emma Hayes' first competitive fixture in charge.
Instead, they ran decidedly out of steam after Trinity Rodman's opener and two goals from Mallory Swanson in the space of two minutes.
An apparent ankle injury forced versatile attacker Sophia Smith out before halftime, and the reality that Zambia posed no threat to mount a comeback while down a player convinced Hayes to remove the remaining four of her five most attack-minded starters by the 65th minute.
That was certainly the sensible way to manage a tournament in which there is a group match every three days. But it also served as a reminder that this particular squad isn't as experienced or as deep as USWNT rosters of previous cycles.
And while the American second unit did still create some quality chances, there was also some visible hesitation when going to goal, most notably on set pieces, where on multiple occasions the option taken was an attempted cross despite being well within shooting range.
Smith had an assist before she joined 19-year-old attacker Jaedyn Shaw on the list of U.S. injury concerns. The status of both players is unknown at the time of publication.
Germany Picks
Like the USWNT, Germany are trying to put a disappointing 2023 World Cup showing behind them after failing to advance from the group stage for the first time in their history.
Unlike the Americans, the Germans have retained a large chunk of their veteran core, including midfielder and captain Alexandra Popp. And it was their oldest player — 34-year-old defender Marina Hegering — who headed her side in front on 25 minutes, on the first of two corner kick assists from Giulia Gwinn.
While the final suggested German dominance, the reality was a team that was more efficient in possession rather than a team that had the ball more. In fact, possession against Australia was split exactly 50-50, but Germany led 17-8 in shots and 4-2 in efforts on target.
Sjoeke Nusken, formerly a key player for U.S. manager Hayes in her time at Chelsea, went off at halftime of the victory but it's not clear if it was injury related.
USA – Germany
Prediction
The recent track record between these sides skews heavily in the Americans' direction, but most of those were also played on American soil, and all of them were closely contested. Additionally, the last six games — including that World Cup semifinal in 2015 — have all come in under 3.5 goals.
So I'm tying that total trend on a yes wager on both teams to score, a same-game parlay with +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability. It has cashed in half of those six games, and it pays out in a 2-1 win for either side or a 1-1 draw, which are all among the more likely outcomes here.
If you don't think both teams will score — which is understandable given the questions surrounding each in attack — then maybe the under is the way for you to go here.
