The first presidential election debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is in the books. And following the Harris-Trump debate on Tuesday night, Vice President Harris is once again the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.
Not only did Harris reclaim the lead in the election betting markets after her first debate with Trump, but her odds to win the November 5 election got even better when Taylor Swift officially endorsed the vice president.
Here are the latest presidential election odds, how the presidential election odds changed on Tuesday night, and the updated presidential election predictions based on those lines.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -110 | 52.38% |
| Donald Trump | +110 | 47.62% |
Odds are according to European exchange Betfair. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Vice President Kamala Harris is currently a -110 favorite to win the presidential election after the first Harris-Trump debate and Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris. That equals a predicted 52.38% chance of a Harris presidential victory. Former President Donald Trump is a +110 underdog, giving Trump a 47.62% chance to win.
Immediately after the first Trump-Harris debate on Tuesday, September 10, Harris became a -105 favorite to win the 2024 presidential election over Trump, who moved to a +105 underdog. That gave Harris a 51.22% chance to win the election and Trump a 48.78% chance to reclaim the White House, based on how the odds translate into election predictions. Those odds then moved to Harris -110 and Trump +110 after Swift's endorsement.
This is not the first time Harris has been the favorite in the election betting markets, as she first passed Trump in early August. Trump had subsequently reclaimed the lead following the Democratic National Convention, but that lead slipped away during Tuesday night's debate.
One point of clarification — so far this election cycle, I have been using election odds from BetMGM. Currently, those odds are not back on the board. BetMGM has tended to re-post lines the morning after major events like the two presidential election debates so far.
However, European exchange Betfair had presidential election odds available throughout the debate, which we monitored live. At Betfair, former president Trump was a -110 favorite before Tuesday's Harris-Trump debate, with Harris a +110 underdog. From there, here's how the lines moved in realtime during the debate.
How Election Odds Moved During First Harris-Trump Debate, Taylor Swift Endorsement
| Debate Topic | Kamala Harris Odds | Donald Trump Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Debate Start | +110 | -110 |
| Springfield, OH Pets | +105 | -105 |
| January 6 Insurrection | +100 | -105 |
| Charlottesville Mentioned | +100 | +100 |
| Trump on Acknowledging Election Loss | -105 | +105 |
| Russian Invasion of Ukraine | -105 | +100 |
| Afghanistan | -105 | +105 |
| Economy/Health Care/Climate Change | -105 | +105 |
| Closing Statements | -105 | +105 |
| Taylor Swift Endorses Harris | -110 | +110 |
Before the debate, Donald Trump was a -110 favorite at Betfair, with Kamala Harris +110. That gave Trump a 52.38% chance of winning the November election and Harris a 47.62% chance.
Those odds shifted to Trump -105 and Harris +105 shortly after the former president cited debunked claims that immigrants in Springfield, OH, were eating the pets of other residents. That moved the presidential election predictions for the chances to win to 51.22% for Trump and 48.78% for Harris.
The lines next changed when the debate turned to the January 6, 2021 insurrection in Washington, D.C. As former president Trump defended the actions of his supporters, Harris' odds got a bit better, moving to +100, while Trump's odds remained at -105. When it was Harris' turn to speak and she brought up the far-right demonstrations in Charlottesville, VA., in 2017, the odds for Trump and Harris drew even at +100 on either side, a 50% chance for each candidate.
Harris then became the favorite at -105 when Trump addressed his recent comments in which he appeared to acknowledge that he did in fact lose the 2020 presidential election. The former president saw his odds move to +105 at that point, as he claimed during the debate that he was being sarcastic when he said he lost "by a whisker."
Those odds of Harris -105 / Trump +105 gave the vice president a projected 51.22% chance of victory, with the former president at 48.78% — a reversal of similar odds earlier in the night.
Trump's odds improved when the debate turned to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as the former president insisted he would end the war in 24 hours, with the lines tightening to Harris -105 and Trump +100.
Foreign relations remained on the agenda, focusing on Afghanistan, as the vice president was asked about her role in the American withdrawal from the country. Harris responded by saying that when he was in office, Trump negotiated with Taliban, which Trump acknowledged. As he did, the odds changed back to Harris -105 and Trump +105.
A brief back-and-forth about economic plans or lack thereof had no effect on election odds. Neither did Trump's aside that Harris would try to take American's guns, nor Harris' rebuttal. The odds remained at Harris -105 and Trump +105 through discussions about health care and climate change, as well, even as Trump made that last conversation more about China, auto manufacturing and Hunter Biden.
That brought us to the closing statements for each candidate. With no surprises coming from either Trump or Harris at the end, the odds closed with Harris a -105 favorite and Trump a +105 underdog, after the odds had been Trump -110 and Harris +110 coming into the debate, at least at Betfair.
Then, the Swift Instagram post moved the odds ever so slightly one last time on Tuesday night, from Harris -105 and Trump +105 to Harris -110 and Trump -110.
2024 Election Predictions: Winning Party in November
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -110 | 51.44% |
| Republicans | +105 | 47.91% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +15000 | 0.65% |
If we zoom out from specific candidates to the odds on which party will win the White House in November, the Democrats are actually even slightly more favored than Harris herself, with the Dems -110 and the Republicans +105. These odds also include a 150-to-1 chance that an Independent or third-party candidate will win the election, because why not?
Lastly, remember that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
