Arsenal vs Lens Prediction | Wednesday Champions League Best Bets

Wednesday, Nov. 29

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Arsenal Odds	-300
Lens Odds	+850
Draw	+425
Over / Under	2.5  -163/+125

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Arsenal looks to wrap up first place in Group B when they host Lens at the Emirates.

The Gunners are coming off a late 1-0 win over Brentford this weekend that saw them go to the top of the Premier League table. The Gunners have a four-point cushion over both Lens and PSV, so a win here would clinch first place in the group, which would be massive for their ability to rotate on the final day of the group stage.

Lens notched a 2-1 win over Arsenal in France, but in their three other group stage matches, they've only picked up two points. They host Sevilla on the final day of the group stage, so a point here would be massive for their chances of getting to the Round of 16.

Find my Arsenal vs. Lens prediction and best bet below.

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Arsenal

Arsenal is sitting atop the Premier League table, but it's not because of their offense. The Gunners have a real problem right now because they can't play through the middle of the pitch. Opponents know how good Arsenal is in build up, so they are outnumbering them in the middle.

Then once the ball goes wide to Saka or Martinelli, opponents are double teaming them, which then causes Arsenal to circulate the ball back and forth around the opposing low block until they can find an opening.

Arsenal right now have the second-lowest percentage of chances created coming through the middle of the pitch. This is a real problem because that is where the goals are. As you can see, Arsenal are struggling to create from open play right now, as they've been aided by a Premier League-high six penalties and have scored eight goals off of set pieces.

image via The Analyst

Martin Odegaard's production is way down this season and has become a reason why Arsenal's offense is unable to play through the middle of the pitch. Odegaard is one of the best creators and suppliers in the Premier League, but this season his Expected Assists per 90 minutes have decreased from 0.20 to 0.10, his passes into the penalty area per 90 have shrunk from 0.23 to 0.08, and his progressive passes per 90 have fallen from 7.7 to 5.8.

The problem is that he's not getting as many touches as he usually does right in front of the 18-yard box and instead is forced out wide to try and overload the right side of the pitch with Saka to create space. While creating a wide overload is great and has allowed Saka to create a ton of chances, this also has hampered Arsenal's ability to attack opponents centrally.

However, Arsenal's defense may be the best in the world right now. The Gunners are only allowing 0.74 NPxG per 90 minutes, which is first in the Premier League. Arsenal's defense has thrived because they are an incredible pressing team out of possession and are outstanding in transition defense.

Arsenal is allowing the fewest Progressive Passes and Dribbles in the Premier League and is second in Final Third to Box Entry Conversion Rate, which is massive because Arsenal holds so much possession that opponents are forced to play very direct against them. Arsenal consistently stopping those direct attacks has made them one of the best defensive teams in the world.

Lens

Lens did beat Arsenal the last time around in France, but it was a bit fluky. Lens only created 0.7 Expected Goals for the match, and their two goals came on a mistake from David Raya and one transition attack that they finished off.

Lens had this meteoric rise last season that brought them up to second in the table, and their tactics are pretty straightforward: they want to dominate the wide areas of the pitch. Franck Haise likes to set his team up in a 3-4-3 diamond shape with the wingbacks always pushing as wide as possible to stretch the defense.

They love to shade their midfielders to one side of the pitch to create an overload in those wide areas to eventually create a chance via a cross. The underlying data backs this up too as they’ve already attempted 203 crosses in nine matches.

When they are out of possession they will typically drop into a 5-4-1, but it really depends on the opponent. They will press high at times, but the reality is that their defense is not as good as their results are. Last season they conceded only 28 goals all season long, but that was off of 43.5 Expected Goals.

They saw some of that negative regression at the beginning of the season, but their defensive performances have been outstanding lately, as they've only conceded two goals in their last eight Ligue 1 matches.

The plan for them in this match is going to be pretty simple. They are going to defend deep and look to hit Arsenal on the counter in wide areas and try to create chances via crosses. They did complete five crosses into Arsenal's penalty area in the first meeting, but I highly doubt they replicate that considering Arsenal has allowed only eight total crosses into the penalty area in their 13 Premier League matches this season.

Arsenal vs Lens

Prediction

Some will call Arsenal's 1-0 win over Brentford lucky, but the reality is that Arsenal controls matches better than any team in the world right now, and that match against Brentford is a perfect example of that.

It may not be the most pleasing thing to watch, but Arsenal's defense and game control have taken them to the top of the table.

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That also means their matches have few events, but the market is still setting their totals too high. Arsenal's matches in the Premier League are only averaging 2.13 Non-penalty Expected Goals, so there is no reason that this total should be at three, especially since there were only 2.2 Expected Goals created in the previous meeting between these two.

Additionally, Lens is going to have a very defensive approach on the road while looking for a point.

I only have 2.43 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Under 3 Goals at -124 at BetRivers.

Pick: Under 3 Goals (-124 | BetRivers)