Atlanta vs. New England Odds
| Atlanta Odds | +185 |
| New England Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +295 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 5 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Friday evening via DraftKings. | |
Atlanta United hosts the New England Revolution on Saturday in a match where the focus will be squarely on who isn't on the field.
Gabriel Heinze revealed Thursday that his decision to make striker Josef Martinez train alone and away from the squad was not related to fitness as previously stated. The result is speculation that the first-year manager is in a feud with the club's all-time leading scorer that's likely to end poorly.
In contrast, the Eastern Conference-leading Revolution have no such drama entering Saturday's contest. However, they do have troubling recent defensive form, conceding 11 goals in their last five games.
Where are the Goals for Atlanta?
From a need standpoint, Heinze's rift with Martinez could not come at a worse possible time.
Atlanta has scored only 13 goals through 12 games, while their expected goals have been every bit worthy of that sparse production, ranging from 12.0 xG to 13.4 xG, depending on the source.
Although the Five Stripes scored twice — both on set pieces — in a surprising 2-2 draw at Nashville on July 7, that masked a lack of chance creation. Heinze's squad created a season-low 0.3 xG in that contest, a factor partly of going down to 10 men after halftime. Atlanta has also failed to generate more than 1.1 xG in their last eight games, according to StatsBomb.
Winger Ezequiel Barco remains away with Argentina's Olympic team. Holding midfielder Santiago Sosa is serving a yellow-card suspension. Between those absences, plus other injuries and international call-ups, Atlanta has 12 players listed as out or questionable on the club's availability report. That's not including Martinez either.
Striker Erick Torres has been given every chance to snap out of a scoring funk. He's healthy and available, but is goalless in eight appearances and five starts. Torres is also only averaging 0.18 xG per 90 minutes.
New England Looks to End Winless Streak
The Revolution are fortunate to have most of their roster healthy, with the only loss being goalkeeper Matt Turner (United States) and winger Tajon Buchanan (Canada) to call-ups to the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Yet, Turner's importance reared itself when Brad Knighton badly misplayed the ball in the sequence leading to the opening goal in Toronto FC's 3-2 win on July 7 at Gillette Stadium.
That result extended New England's winless run to a season-long three games, though the club's ability to nearly climb out of an early 3-0 hole could be a confidence booster. Carles Gil scored his second goal to go with his MLS-leading 10 assists during that comeback, and Adam Buksa added his team-leading fifth goal.
Despite their first home loss in six matches, the Revolution's 2.4 xG generated (according to StatsBomb) were their most since a 3-1 home win over the New York Red Bulls on May 22.
Contrary to their five home wins, New England has a decidedly more modest away record of 2-2-3 (W-L-D) and has created more xG than its opponent in only one away game — their 1-0 victory at FC Cincinnati on May 29.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Heinze-and-Martinez episode follows a similar episode in Toronto, where a dispute with then-manager Chris Armas led TFC striker Jozy Altidore into exile.
There is a key difference, though: Unlike Toronto FC, Atlanta doesn't appear to have quit on Heinze.
Atlanta might be on a seven-match winless run, just as Toronto went seven games without a victory. However, in Atlanta's case, five of those matches have ended with the club earning a point. That's a far cry from the six consecutive Toronto FC defeats leading to Armas' firing.
So, I think you can expect a good effortfrom Atlanta, even if the performance might be limited based on Heinze's squad availability. And that puts a ton of value on the draw.
Even with only two away wins, New England is a fair favorite. Yet, realistically, there's a much greater chance this depleted Atlanta side emerges with one point rather than three since it's just not clear where the goals will come from.
You could also consider taking the draw on an "away no bet" wager, similar to the "home no bet" play I made on last week's draw between Atlanta and Nashville.
However, at +295 odds and an implied 25.3% probability, for me the price on the straight draw is too good to ignore.
Pick: Draw ML (+295)
