Belgium vs Romania Preview | Euro 2024 Prediction

Saturday, June 22

3 p.m. ET

FOX

Belgium Odds	-225
Romania Odds	+600
Draw	+360
Over / Under	2.5  -138 / +110

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Belgium will try avoid moving closer to another early tournament exit in their second Group E match Saturday while Romania come in knowing even a point could take them closer to their first knockout phase game since 2000.

The Red Devils fell behind early to Slovakia in their opener, and despite controlling possession and chances in the second half they could not find a leveler in their 1-0 defeat. And while another loss won't mathematically eliminate Belgium from moving on, it would wrestle fate out of their own hands on match day 3.

Romania pulled off arguably the most stunning result of match day 1 in their 3-0 romp of Ukraine. But while the Balkan side were deserving winners, the score flattered to deceive after Andriy Lunin's goalkeeping contributed to the first two goals.

This is these nations' first meeting in a competitive fixture since they split a pair of World Cup Qualifying games in 1993. Both eventually reached USA '94.

Here is my Belgium vs Romania preview.

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Belgium

Manager Domenico Tedesco's side created a full expected goal more than Slovakia in their group opening defeat, and that did not include an apparent leveler from Romelu Lukaku that was correctly taken off the board for being offiside.

But for the most part it was very much a case of a volume of chances created rather than a handful of quality opportunities. Slovakia were content to focus primarily on flustering their opponents after taking the lead in the seventh minute through Ivan Schranz.

Of Belgium's 14 shot attempts after going behind, only one carried an expected goals value of better than 0.13, and that effort from Johan Bakayoko was blocked by a defender before it reached goalkeeper Jan Oblak.

The performance suggested something we already thought we knew from qualifying — that Belgium still have plenty of potential, but are a team that is far more dangerous when scoring first. They did that in all six of their qualifying victories, while they had to come from behind to earn their two draws.

Romania

Romania present a similar challenge to Slovakia with a squad built around the collective, combined with some elite pieces in defense. That includes goalkeeper Horațiu Moldovan, Oblak's backup at Atletico Madrid, and Tottenham Hotspur defender Radu Dragusin.

But their opening victory over Ukraine was atypical. While Edward Iordanescu's squad has proven itself plenty capable of earning a result when conceding possession, the 30% total they held against Ukraine was lower than what they posted in all but one of their qualifiers — a 2-2 draw at Switzerland.

Their three goals scored were also an anomaly — they reached that plateau only once in qualifying — and while it's debatable whether Nicolae Sanciu's opener from distance was deserved, Razvan Marin's second clearly benefitted from Lunin's late reaction.

There is little recent track record to suggest how Romania will fare against an opponent with multiple elite attackers. They did fall 3-2 to a very good Colombia side in a March friendly, though.

Belgium vs Romania

Prediction

Securing even one point here would be seen as a bonus for Romania after opening the group with a victory. What they really can't afford is to give back their goal differential advantage. That means an early Belgium goal may not be as likely to open up the match as you'd expect.

Even if they didn't have an abundance of high quality chances, Belgium were unfortunate in their tournament-opening defeat, and if they play the same way here they should find three points as their reward. But I wouldn't expect this to be any sort of romp, especially since Belgium will also feel relatively comfortable so long as they're in the lead.

So I'm playing the favorite to win and the total to land under 3.5 at +130 and an implied 43.5% probability.

I'm also backing Romelu Lukaku to find the net again at even money or better. I lost playing it in the opener. But that doesn't mean it was the wrong wager, and he's the kind of striker who is particularly wearing on opponents who spend most of their time sitting deep.

Picks: Belgium to win and under 3.5, same-game parlay (+130 via ESPNBet), Romelu Lukaku anytime goal scorer (+100 via bet365)