During Eddie Howe's tenure on the south coast, Bournemouth caused Arsenal problems numerous times. However, that hasn't been a trend the Cherries have been able to continue since getting promoted back into the the Premier League. Arsenal prevailed in both clashes with Bournemouth last season by an aggregate score of 7-0, and they did the same in 2022/23 by a 5-2 margin.
Mikel Arteta seems to have his Basque counterpart Andoni Iraola's number, but will that change Saturday? Read on for my Bournemouth vs. Arsenal prediction to find out.
Bournemouth vs. Arsenal Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Bournemouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +115 | 2.5 -143o / +108u | +380 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -140 | 2.5 -143o / +108u | -140 |
- Bournemouth vs. Arsenal moneyline odds: Bournemouth +380, Arsenal -140, Draw +280
- Bournemouth vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 goals (over -143, under +108)
- Bournemouth vs. Arsenal pick: Arsenal ML -140
I am backing the Arsenal ML in Arsenal vs. Bournemouth.
Bournemouth Preview
Unlike their visitors this weekend, the Cherries left the pitch in their last match with a bad taste in their mouths. A fairly dominant performance statistically was rewarded with a 1-0 defeat at the hands of relegation candidate Leicester City, leaving a club that might have had European aspirations entering the campaign with just two wins from their first seven. Currently, Bournemouth sit in 13th with eight points and are 11th in the league in Expected Threat (xT) differential, so their results are generally matching their performances.
Second-year boss Iraola will have his entire squad at his disposal for this fixture — a rarity in today's age — and that includes Tyler Adams, who has spent nearly the entirety of his first 12 months at the club on the treatment table. Despite losing talisman Dominic Solanke, Bournemouth's style under the Spaniard hasn't changed. They're still an aggressive out-of-possession side that wants to continuously force turnovers and maximize the attacking transitions that follow, but it's hard to gauge how much Solanke's final product will be missed.
Evanilson, brought in from Porto to be the Cherries' new No. 9, has the physical frame to match his predecessor, but whether he possesses the same box movement and link-up play is another question. Antoine Semenyo has become the main man in Bournemouth's attack off the right and has a team-high three league goals, but the 24-year old Ghanaian has also displayed high-level creative capacity too.
Arsenal Preview
Arsenal nearly went into the international break by dropping points at home to Southampton, but like they usually do at the Emirates these days, they found a way to get the win in the end. Then, over the international window, the North London club had another potential big loss when Bukayo Saka had to be taken off due to injury in England's first fixture. However, based on comments from Lee Carsley and Arteta, it appears it was nothing serious and Saka will be ready to go for this one. Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli also have been dealing with minor issues, but again those shouldn't keep them out of this game.
The statuses of Jurrien Timber, Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko are less clear, and Martin Odegaard and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain out. Additionally, Neto will not be available as he's currently on loan from Bournemouth and cannot face his parent club. So, in the event David Raya gets injured, there would be a big drop-off to whichever youth player Arteta decides to throw into that situation. If Timber and White are both unavailable, that does destabilize the Gunners' back four a bit, but Mikel Merino being healthy does make fielding Thomas Partey at right back more palatable.
As always, we know how good Arsenal are, and with an "easier" Champions League fixture at the midweek (Shakhtar Donetsk at home), they should produce a performance that meets their usual standards.
Bournemouth vs. Arsenal Prediction
Bournemouth's game model really only works when they come up against sides that are worse than they are. As soon as they come up against a team with a physical or technical advantage, it becomes very difficult to keep such an aggressive defensive approach going for 90 minutes, and those better teams will be well-equipped to exploit the gaps that will eventually open.
Arsenal are physically well ahead of their opponents in this fixture, which makes playing long against a man-to-man press very viable, and they also have the on-ball quality to stress Bournemouth's defensive structure the rest of the time. It will also be challenging for the home side to establish any sort of territorial or possession advantage, since Arsenal are as good as anyone when it comes to their defensive setup. I can see the Cherries, with the home crowd behind them for a late kickoff, getting off to a fiery start and competing for the first 10-to-15 minutes, but after that they'll fade and Arsenal should come away with a fairly straightforward victory.
Pick: Arsenal ML (-140 via bet365)
How to Watch Premier League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England |
| Date: | Saturday, October 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC / YouTube TV, Fubo |
