Brentford vs Wolves Odds
| Brentford Odds | +170 |
| Wolves Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +107 / -138 |
Brentford and Wolverhampton Wanderers meet at the Gtech Community Stadium for the second time in nine days Friday when they clash in an FA Cup Third Round tie.
Wolves' previous 4-1 league win over the Bees — enabled in part by three Brentford defensive mistakes — was emblematic of each club's recent form.
It was the second of three straight league wins to take Gary O'Neil's side up to the relatively lofty position of 11th in the Premier League table and 13 points clear of the relegation zone.
For the Bees, it was a fifth straight defeat that has put Thomas Frank's group in danger of dropping back into a relegation fight, now only four points clear of the drop zone.
This is a fixture Wolves have had the better of at the Premier League level, posting a 3-1-1 record in the teams' first meetings in the top flight since the 1940s.
Here is how I'm betting Brentford vs Wolves.
Brentford
There's no doubt Brentford has missed the presence of striker Ivan Toney since he was handed an eight-month suspension for betting during the latter portion of last season. And while Toney's suspension is set to lift later this month, it looks increasingly unlikely that he will play a major role for the Bees again with wealthier clubs like Arsenal and Chelsea pursuing him in the secondary transfer window.
But ultimately, the rumored fee of around $125 million Toney could fetch would be worth the squad reinforcements it could bring in multiple areas of the pitch.
In the interim, Bryan Mbeumo — Brentford's leading scorer in Toney's absence with seven goals — is also sidelined with an ankle issue, and several defenders are also on the injury report. Then there's experienced Ben Mee, who will finish a three-game suspension in Friday's cup tie.
The defensive absences have shown themselves repeatedly during the Bees' five-match winless run. Brentford scored in all but one of those defeats, but has conceded 12 times on 7.1 xG in those five matches.
The loss to Wolves provided an exclamation point to those struggles, with bad defensive passes leading to two Wolves goals and careless marking to a third.
Wolves
For much of the season, the book on O'Neil's Wolves squad was that they were much better at home, and arguably also better when playing an opponent that would allow them to play on the counter.
Back-to-back wins against Brentford away and then Everton may be reason to rethink that. But in some ways, they also follow the blueprint because early goals changed the match complexion in their favor and allowed them to become a countering side.
Mario Lemina's opener in the previous win at Brentford kicked off a stretch of three goals and 1.80 xG created in 25 minutes. Outside of that run, Brentford was the more dangerous side, but chasing a two-goal and eventually three-goal deficit.
Wolves also coupled two goals within 10 minutes of the second half in its 3-0 win against Everton, and had a similar outburst earlier in the season when it found the net twice in second-half stoppage time in its dramatic 2-1 home win over Tottenham Hotspur.
But Wolves will also be hampered by some absences. Leading scorer Hwang Hee-Chan is with South Korea at the AFC Asia Cup and Rayan Aït-Nouri has joined Algeria for the African Cup of Nations. Lamina is also away from the team dealing with the passing of his father.
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Brentford vs Wolves
Prediction
Brentford has more absences in this one, but it's Wolves who will have the fresher ones, with three players who have combined to start 52 of 60 Premier League games between them not in the squad.
And even with all the mistakes the Bees made in these teams' recent previous meeting, it's hard to ignore Hwang Hee-Chan's influence in making sure those mistakes were punished, when others not enjoying similarly rampant form might have wasted them.
With the line moving toward Wolves because of recent form and a lower total because of absences within both teams, I think there's a chance to wisely fade both in tandem and back Brentford at least snapping its slide at five losses.
This is a spot where they can at least force a replay against a Wolves' side playing an unfamiliar lineup. And when Brentford does earn at least a point this season, the total has always gone over 1.5 goals. I'm parlaying the two together at -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability.
