Bayern Munich vs. Dortmund Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -250 |
| Dortmund Odds | +575 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-155 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ABC | ESPN+ | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The biggest clubs in Germany square off Saturday when Bayern Munich hosts Borussia Dortmund with a chance to clinch its 10th consecutive league title.
The Bavarians lead the league by nine points with four matches to go. A home win in the latest Der Klassiker would make it mathematically impossible for the Black and Yellows to catch them the final three weeks of the season.
The Bavarian side has won six consecutive meetings in this rivalry, including twice this season in the German Supercup and Bundesliga by 3-1 and 3-2 score lines, respectively. Bayern also beat Dortmund three times last season, twice by a 3-2 result and once in a 4-2 thriller.
The common theme of the matchups has been goals. Both clubs like to play open, attacking soccer, in tune with the Bundesliga's reputation as the highest scoring of Europe's top five leagues.
While it's not the most fun to bet an under when these teams play, it's where my projections show value and how I'm looking to bet this match.
Bayern Munich Closing Dominant Season
Bayern has dominated the Bundesliga this season more than any other time in its nine-year winning run when you compare its underlying expected-goals numbers to past seasons. The Bavarians posted a +1.68 xG difference per match.
Even the dominant Bayern that scored 100 goals and won the Champions League during the 2019-20 campaign had just a +1.51 xG difference in the league per match.
That's a sign the Bundesliga as a whole is down, and the European performances of RB Leipzig, Dortmund and Wolfsburg in the UCL — along with Bayern Leverkusen in the Europa League — reflect that belief.
Bayern wasn't as dominant as years past in the UCL, barely outplaying seventh-placed Spanish side Villarreal over two legs and struggling on the road against RB Salzburg in their first-ever UCL knockout appearance.
The lack of midfield depth has really hurt Bayern, with Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka having battled injuries. The Bavarians have defensive transition issues when they're healthy, but when one has been out or missing, the defense has looked often exposed in space and through direct attacks.
Most of the club's attackers, namely Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller, don't really do much defensive work at this stage. And the result is a weaker defensive counter-press that Villarreal exposed when it consistently threatened in the first leg and end of the second match.
Since Goretzka and Kimmich have played together in the last month though, the defense has considerably improved. The side conceded a combined 2.3 xGA in its last four league matches, allowing just four shots in the second leg to Villarreal. I was encouraged by the defensive approach to stopping Dortmund star Erling Haaland in the first match, as he had just three shots.
Dortmund Seeking Der Klassiker Magic
Dortmund's defensive game plan against Bayern in the first meeting was the best I've seen it produce and it still didn't matter because of miscues in playing from the back. The Black and Yellows prevented the Bavarians from counter-pressing effectively, keeping them from getting out of their own half.
Bayern had just 16 shots and 53% of the ball, which is nowhere near the type of possession and field-tilt dominance it's accustomed to in the league. The Bavarians produced just two xG in the match, including a controversial penalty given late in the second half.
Conceding just 1.3 xG to this Bayern attack is worthy of praise for manager Marco Rose's men. They've allowed just seven xG in their last eight league games, including three clean sheets and a 4-1 drubbing against RB Leipzig.
Dortmund scored six times against Wolfsburg last time out, but vastly over-performed its xG numbers. This season, Dortmund has 76 goals from 54 xG, which is 40% over-performance not sustainable to maintain in the long term.
BJ Cunningham’s Bundesliga Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
The total comes down to Dortmund's ability to avoid mistakes when trying to play from the back. Usually, the club's defenders make one or two costly mistakes that present easy chances and goals for Bayern. If the Black and Yellows avoid those situations, they have a chance to be competitive here.
Bayern's attack hasn't been firing at its best of late and its defense has improved with the healthy midfield available. Dortmund's attack should regress at some point as well.
My projection has Bayern winning by 1.4 goals, thus I show no value on the -1.5 spread set by oddsmakers.
As for the total, I have it projected at 3.69 goals and could understand it being at 3.75 goals via the Asian Handicap betting options. However, I'm bumping the total up to four goals on the alternative line at -115 odds instead as my top pick. I will also back the total staying under that 3.75 number at even money.
Pick: Total Under 4 Goals (-115 | Play to -120)
