Tuesday Champions League Odds, Picks: Back Inter Milan in Clash With Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs. Inter Milan Odds

Real Madrid hosts Inter Milan on Tuesday with first place in Group D on the line.

Real Madrid is currently sitting with 12 points atop Group D and really only needs a draw to win the group and avoid a potential nightmare first round matchup in the knockout stage.

How important is winning the group? If you win your group you can avoid Manchester City, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Ajax, and most likely Chelsea in the first round, which is massive. So, it will be interesting to see if Real Madrid plays for the draw or goes for all three points to secure the group.

Inter Milan has rebounded from a bad start in Champions League play and now only needs to beat Real Madrid to win the group. Inter offensively has been one of the best teams in all of Europe this season, and going up against a Real Madrid defense that is due for a lot of negative regression could prove to be costly for Los Blancos.

Can Real Madrid Win Without Benzema?

There is some game  theory to look out for in this match because Real Madrid only needs a draw to win the group. However, Los Blancos have shown under manager Carlo Ancelotti that they're not really good at playing a very defensive style and seeing a game out.

Take the Athletic Bilbao match last Wednesday as an example. They allowed a little more than two xG and 38 touches in their own penalty area. Inter is the type of team that can torch Real Madrid’s defense, which is still 13th in NPxG allowed in La Liga action. 

Real Madrid is due for a ton of negative regression offensively because Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr. are finishing at absurd rates. Los Blancos have scored 37 goals in La Liga off of 27.9 expected goals, per fbref.com. To make matters worse, Karim Benzema is going to miss this match after picking up a hamstring injury this weekend.

Will Inter Milan's Offense Keep Rolling?

Inter has been an absolute offensive juggernaut in Serie A this season, putting up 2.30 xG per contest. They're lead Italy in big scoring chances, shots per 90 minutes and crosses completed into the penalty area. So, Real Madrid is going to have a really difficult time shutting them down.

Even though Inter lost Romelu Lukaku and manager Antonio Conte during the offseason, they made a great hire bringing in Simone Inzaghi who played a very similar 3-5-2 structure at Lazio. Along with bringing in Edin Džeko to replace Lukaku, Inter have a +18.52 xGD in a little ove 1,200 minutes when playing out of it this season.

In fact, they're only allowing 0.99 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of it this season. So, without Benzema, Real Madrid is going to have some trouble creating chances.

Additionally, Inter didn't deserve to lose the last meeting between these two sides either. They won the xG in the stats, holding a 2.0-1.1 advantage. However, an 89th-minute Rodrygo goal was the difference. This time things should be a little different given where Inter is at offensively and where Real Madrid is at defensively. 

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Betting Analysis & Picks

I understand that I have Real Madrid projected at -110, but given the fact that Real Madrid only needs a draw, I think it’s going to be hard for them play in anything other than a defensive structure given how prolific Inter’s offense has been. In other words, Real Madrid may be in trouble on Tuesday. 

So, given the game theory of Real Madrid only needing a draw combined with their poor defense, I love Inter getting +0.5 at -140 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Inter +0.5 (-140)