England vs Italy Odds
| England Odds | -163 |
| Italy Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +115 / -150 |
England and Italy meet again for a Euro Qualifying match that is vitally important to the Italians.
The Three Lions are sitting atop Group C with 13 points, three ahead of both Italy and Ukraine. Gareth Southgate can basically secure a spot in the Euros with a win over Italy, but with Malta and North Macedonia as their final two matches, England are going to win Group C.
Italy are in a bad position right now. They are tied on points with Ukraine after drawing with North Macedonia in the last round of qualifiers. The defending champs are in danger if they lose this, with likely everything coming down to their final qualifying match against Ukraine to decide who gets a spot in Euro 2024.
Here is my England vs Italy pick.
England
There are many people who criticize Gareth Southgate and the English National Team because of how slow and pragmatic they play, but it actually has enabled England to become one of the best teams in the world over the last four years.
Southgate values game control over everything else and with the talent England now possess in the midfield, they are able to break down teams that want to play low blocks against them with relative ease. The main reason for that is Jude Bellingham, who is at this moment the most in form midifielder in the world. With Declan Rice playing with him in a double pivot, it allows Bellingham to play his natural position as an eight to get forward and attack the opponent's back line. He's already scored 10 goals for Real Madrid this season and that is without Los Blancos having a world class striker like Harry Kane.
TWENTY. YEARS. OLD. 😲
Jude Bellingham simply cannot be stopped. STUNNING solo goal. pic.twitter.com/Vn6Nbhk06p
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 3, 2023
The England attack is incredibly talented, but they will be without Bakayo Saka for this match out on the right wing, which means wither Phil Foden is going to play there or Jarred Bowen will get his first start of this qualifying round. While the England attack still possesses a lot of talent, the real reason they are so good is how solid they are defensively.
In their last 10 competitive matches, England have only conceded seven goals and 6.2 xG. The reason for that is because it's almost impossible to play through the middle of the pitch with Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, two of the best ball stoppers in the entire world. So, that means teams are forced to try and attack England in wide areas.
Italy
The current Italian National team is nothing like the team that won Euro 2021 over England. Sure, they have a lot of the same players from that team, but they have either all exited their prime or have fallen off talent-wise comparatively to the rest of the bigger countries in Europe.
Luciano Spalletti has taken over as the new Italian manager, which means their possession-dominant style of play will not change. In their first two qualifiers under his management, Italy held over 60% possession.
Spalletti's Napoli teams always played with incredibly high intensity both in and out of possession. When Napoli lost the ball they always pressed high to try and win it back as soon as possible, which meant that teams who were better in possession or good transitional teams could get at Napoli, such as AC Milan. They also were always quick in their transitions once they won the ball back, but this version of Italy doesn't have a player like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia or Victor Osimhen that can single handily unlock an opposing defense.
Italy's front line that they played against Malta was Giacomo Raspadori, Moises Kean and Domenico Berardi. That's not exactly a front three that is going create high quality chances against one of the best defenses in the world.
While Italy don't possess that much attacking talent, they do have a solid midfield, backline and goalkeeper that has only allowed 7.9 xG in 10 competitive matches since Euro 2021.
England vs Italy
Pick & Prediction
Even though Spalletti played a high intensity pressing style at Napoli, defensive solidity and a compact low block has been the most successful defensive strategy against Southgate's England. With England controlling most of the possession, the pace of this match is likely going to be very slow with England trying to find space in between the lines or getting their wingers in 1-on-1 situations.
The reality for Italy is they don't possess the offensive fire power or personnel to play Spalletti's build out of the back style that he played at Napoli against elite defensive sides like England.
I am expecting Italy to sit in defensively, not trying to press England high and value that defensive solidity, which teams like the United States have done successfully. Italy have a lot of Inter Milan players in their midfield and a backline that is used to playing without the ball in a transitional based system. They are more than capable of playing a successful low block against England.
So, I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-148 via BetRivers)
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