Euro 2024 continues on Saturday with three fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's Poland vs Netherlands game and more.
Euro 2024 Match Projections (June 16)
Poland vs Netherlands, 9 a.m. ET
I have Netherlands at a 55.6% chance to win. However, Poland are undervalued in the market. Poland's quality defense will help to keep this close, as they allowed just 0.67xGA per game in qualifiers.
Poland's 19.3% chance at winning translates to clear value on the +550. I'll take a half a unit on Poland +0.5 at +140 and sprinkle two exact score wagers.
Picks: Poland +0.5 (+140 via BetMGM), Poland 1-0 (+1600), Poland 2-1 (+2000)
Slovenia vs Denmark, 12 p.m. ET
Denmark are favored to win 51.6% of the time. This could be a stingy game between teams that competed in qualifiers. There were just 3.22 xG in those two games.
This is a big chance for both teams to get points, with both looking to slot in behind England in the group.
A 0-0 draw is also a plausible outcome, so I'll take the +800 at Caesars on that.
Picks: 0-0 Draw (0.2u, +800 via Caesars), Under 1.5 (+205 via DraftKings), Draw (0.5u, +265 via DraftKings)
Serbia vs England, 3 p.m. ET
England are heavily favored to win this fixture at 65.7% per my simulations. The Three Lions also have the best defense in the tournament.
While Serbia did produce 1.5 xG per game in qualifying, they did so against a soft schedule with no opponent inside the top 35 in the world.
