Fulham vs Tottenham Odds
| Fulham Odds | +230 |
| Tottenham Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
Tottenham look to maintain their Champions League spot in the table when they take on Fulham in a London Derby.
Fulham have been having an up and down rollercoaster season, but they are still sitting in the middle of the table and are safe from the relegation fight. The Cottagers have been more willing to play up and down type of matches as opposed to playing really passive defensively in the previous meeting with Tottenham, so this one could get off the rails.
Tottenham got a massive win at Aston Villa last weekend to close the gap to two points on the top four. England look to have all but locked up a fifth spot for the Champions League based on UEFA coefficients, so now Tottenham's focus is going to be on holding off the chasing pack, so three points here would be huge.
Read on for my Fulham vs Tottenham prediction.
Fulham
Fulham have had a very interesting season so far. They've pulled off some big upsets and had some complete head-scratching matches. For example, they have pulled off upsets at home over Arsenal and Brighton, but have also lost to Burnley of all teams. Their last match against Wolves was one of their unluckiest losses of the season creating 2.6 expected goals to Wolves 0.8, but lost the match 2-1.
In the first part of the year, Fulham were a very passive low block and they were doing a decent job in it, but the problem was when they decided to break in transition, they didn't have many good offensive outlets that could consistently give them production. Raul Jimenez has been starting up top basically all season and was only getting them 2.6 shots per 90 minutes.
Over their last seven matches though something has changed. Fulham are now starting young Brazilian Rodrigo Muniz up top and he is giving them elite striker production. In his 9.7 90s he is averaging 4.12 shots per 90 minutes and has already scored five goals. What also has happened is Fulham are now more willing to play in back and forth transitional type of matches, which means they have been much higher event.
Fulham's last seven matches have averaged 3.16 expected goals and the Cottagers have created over one expected goal in every one of those matches. It's not a coincidence that a lot of the teams they faced play at a similar pace to what they are going to face here against Tottenham and they held their own in every single match.
Tottenham
Tottenham want to press high, play a high line and try to disrupt a team's build up play. They’ve been successful to a certain extent having the second-best PPDA in the Premier League and forcing the most high turnovers as well. High turnovers are what won them the match against Fulham in the previous meeting, as Fulham kept trying to build out of the back, but Spurs' pressing was too much for them and they ended forcing 10 high turnovers.
Being a good high pressing team is great, but you also have to be decent defending in transition, which is not the case with Tottenham. They are 16th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and are allowing 1.49 npxG per 90 minutes. Not to mention, their best center back and the guy who cleans up a lot of the transition attacks against them, Mickey van de Ven, is going to miss this match due to injury. Fulham have been playing much better in transition as opposed to trying to build out of the back, so Tottenham could concede one or two here.
There is also the elephant in the room of how much Tottenham have over-performed their underlying numbers this season. Spurs have scored 56 goals off of 47 expected goals and even in their last two matches they've scored seven goals off of 3.4 expected. There is going to be regression at some point in the season and it may happen here against Fulham.
Fulham vs Tottenham
Prediction
Fulham at Craven Cottage versus Fulham away from it are two completely different teams. 25 of their 35 points have come at home and they also have a +2.8 xGD there versus a -13.6 xGD on the road.
Tottenham have struggled at times away from home and have drastically over-performed having a +10 actual goal differential, but a -1.9 expected goal differential.
Tottenham are extremely vulnerable in transition here without van de Ven on their back line with Fulham more willing to play in transition here as opposed to the previous meeting.
I think this a fantastic spot to bet on some Tottenham regression, especially on the road, so I like the value on Fulham +0.5 at -118.
