Georgia vs Portugal Preview | Georgia – Portugal Picks, Predictions & Odds
Eurasia Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes.
Georgia vs Portugal Odds, Georgia – Portugal Picks
| Georgia Odds | +800 |
| Portugal Odds | -300 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150o / +120u |
Georgia look for a massive upset when they face Portugal in the final match of the group stage. Here are some betting tips for the match: considering the odds, a bet on Portugal seems favorable given their strong performance.
The situation is pretty simple for Georgia. They need a win and some help to get to the knockout stage. They have been brave in their style of play, but bravery can only take you so far when you are conceding chances left and right.
Georgia lost to Spain in qualifying by a combined score of 10-2, so beating Portugal is a pretty severe mountain to climb. My Georgia prediction is that they will struggle defensively and likely concede multiple goals.
Portugal won their first two matches of the group stage and have secured the top spot in the group, so they have nothing to play for in this match.
They haven't been as impressive as maybe most would think despite the scoreline in their two matches, but even if they rotate their squad here against Georgia they should have no problem creating a lot of high quality chances. My Portugal prediction is that they will score at least three goals in the game.
Let's dive into my Georgia vs Portugal preview as the squads clash at the Arena AufSchalke.
Georgia Picks
Georgia have been the worst defensive team in this tournament by a pretty wide margin. Through their first two matches against Turkey and Czechia they have conceded 6.1 expected goals, which is 1.4 more than anyone else through two matches. There is a reason behind that and it has to do with their style of play.
Coming into the tournament, Georgia were the most passive team throughout qualifying that got to the Euros. They had a PPDA of 19.4 because they played a very passive 5-3-2 low block. However, since they've been at the Euros they have been incredibly brave out of possession, trying to press their opponents and create a very up and down type of match. The problem is they do not have the talent in their defense to do that.
The other issue is once you get them into a negative game state and they have to be even more aggressive, things tend to snowball on them. That is why they lost 7-1 to Spain during qualifying and the same thing can happen here against Portugal. We have to remember this is a team that allowed 2.25 xG per 90 minutes during qualifying, so these types of defensive performances when they are playing more aggressive are to be expected.
Portugal Picks
Portugal have won their first two matches, but they haven't really been that impressive. They were gifted an early lead by Turkey and then created most of their chances when they were up 2-0. However, in this type of match, getting into a positive game state is only going to allow them to thrive.
Roberto Martinez may be like Spain and rotate his entire roster because this match means nothing, but Portugal have the most depth of anyone in this entire tournament, particularly in their attack. They dominated in qualifying, playing a lot of teams at Georgia's level and averaging well over three expected goals per 90 minutes. Portugal are a good build up team, but Martinez is constantly tinkering with their set up, which so far has worked throughout qualifying and this tournament, but it will eventually come back to bite them when they have to play one of Europe's elites.
As you saw against the Czech Republic, Georgia really struggle to defend the wide areas, which is where Portugal have tried to attack from in this tournament. They sent in 29 crosses against the Czech Republic and they didn't even really attempt to play through the middle against Turkey.
Georgia vs Portugal
Prediction
Even though this match means nothing to Portugal and they will most likely rotate their squad, the second team players will want to shine in what is likely their lone opportunity of the tournament. We also have the best offensive team in terms of expected goals during qualifying against the worst, so Portugal are going to have numerous chances in this match.
Georgia have been brave in their style of play, but brave can sometimes turn to reckless, which is the case so far considering they conceded over six expected goals to Czechia and Turkey.
Portugal should be able to dominate the wide areas and create a lot of chances from out wide and once they get the first goal, this thing is going to snowball on Turkey.
I have Portugal projected for 2.8 goals in this match, so I like the value on their team total over.
Pick: Portugal Team Total Over 2.5 (+125 via bet365)
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