Leicester City vs. Fulham Odds
| Leicester City Odds | +140 |
| Fulham Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-136/ +110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-168/ +132) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
Another week, another win for Marco Silva's Fulham as the Cottagers remained in the top eight in their return to the Premier League. Fulham scored late at home from a corner to beat Southampton on Saturday, 2-1. They've won both of their fixtures since the World Cup break. Next up for Silva's side is an away day at Leicester City on Tuesday.
Leicester had two difficult matches against Newcastle and Liverpool since the return from the World Cup break. The Foxes lost them both but are a small home favorite on Tuesday as they look to close the growing gap between them and the top half of the table.
Both teams have been two of the biggest overperformers in front of the opposing goal all season. For Fulham, it's been a remarkable efficiency on headers and crossing. For Leicester, it's been their high conversion rate on shots from outside the penalty area.
Although both teams have been over machines this season, I'm holding my nose and betting against goals when the two match up in Leicester on Tuesday.
Leicester City
Leicester City was an excellent transition and quick-strike team when it was at its best and competing for European places. That hasn't been the case for more than a year now, though. They've retained the conservative possession ways of Brendan Rodgers DNA and not kept the lethal transition elements. The Foxes have been consistently overvalued in the market in my view and their attack isn't nearly as good as their 1.6 goals per match would suggest this season.
The Foxes rank 14th in shots per match and 17th in average shot distance. The attack is build on the fourth highest finishing efficiency of goals per shot, which is traditionally not sustainable. If your attack is creating a bunch of low-quality, long-range shots and converting them at a high rate, it's a major red flag for future production.
There isn't a single ball progression or possession statistic going forward that the Foxes would be considered above average in attack. They rank outside the top 10 in progressive passes, box entries and crosses into the area.
The good fortune for Leicester has actually come on the other end of their shots. When you compare the average post-shot xG difference for opposition goalies against the Foxes, they've benefited the third most from poor goalie shot stopping against them. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have faced worst shot stopping as a whole this season.
Injuries to James Maddison and now Patson Daka only further weaken this attack. The Foxes don't have a single player averaging more than 0.27 xG per 90 that will start on Tuesday.
Fulham
Fulham has played some of the most high-event soccer in the entire Premier League season. They have the league's worst defense by xG allowed but there are signs that could improve in the coming weeks given the other underlying numbers.
The Cottagers are 14th in most of the key ball progression categories defensively. They're also only 11th in conceding shots per match. They tend to let in a few high-quality shots per match and are dead-last in conceding big scoring chances, but it's not like the system is set up under Silva in a way that suggests that will continue. Teams aren't tilting the field against them as if they're truly a relegation candidate.
Compare their defense to Bournemouth, for example, a relegation candidate who is bottom three in every single defensive category except xG and big scoring chances conceded. Teams are walking into their penalty area much easier than they're getting into Fulham's.
The Cottagers sit right around league average in expected threat per match too.
As for the Cottagers' attack, Fulham is elite at one thing and it has propelled them into the top half of the table. Fulham is right around league average in attacking metrics like box entries, but they are third in crosses completed into the penalty area. Their success on headers and crosses is why Aleksandar Mitrovic has 10 league goals in 16 matches.
Even despite this, the attack has run really well as a whole and regression looms. I've said this a lot about Fulham this year as the attack has continued to run flaming hot, but the Cottagers remain projected as a below average attack despite the fact they have the sixth most goals in the league this season.
Leicester City vs. Fulham Pick
The Foxes and Cottagers are two teams that have seen plenty of back-and-forth games with goals at both ends of the pitch. There are defensive question marks for both defending in the penalty area. But the perception of these two teams as wide open is mostly driven by finishing variance. Both attacks have run really well this season and the Fulham defense has positive regression coming.
Leicester should control most of the possession with its defensive possession and injuries to Maddison and Daka make it difficult for them to break down Fulham. Leicester City has improved its set piece defense marginally too, a major key in slowing down Fulham.
The total is a touch inflated and because of that, I'll bet under 2.5 at anything plus money.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+100 or better)
