Liverpool is looking for back-to-back wins to open their Champions League campaign when they host Bologna at Anfield.
Liverpool has been in amazing form lately, winning their past three matches, and are now at the top of the Premier League table. Arne Slot has completely transformed Liverpool into one of the best teams in the world.
Bologna has had a pretty rough start to their Serie A campaign as they've only have one win in their first six matches. Vincenzo Italiano came over from Fiorentina to continue what Thiago Motta had built, but so far they've aren't anywhere near where they were last season. They had a very boring 0-0 draw with Shakhtar in the opener, so a result here would be massive.
Liverpool vs. Bologna Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -190 | 2.5 -225/+175 | -550 |
| Bologna Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +135 | 2.5 -225/+175 | +1300 |
- Liverpool vs. Bologna moneyline odds: Liverpool -525, Bologna +1300, Draw +650
- Liverpool vs. Bologna over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Liverpool vs. Bologna pick: Under 3.5
I am backing the Under 3.5 in Bologna vs. Liverpool.
Liverpool Preview
Liverpool have been incredible so far this season. Slot has taken a blend of what they were under Jurgen Klopp and also given them the ability to slow things down and control matches.
Slot is typically having his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the midfield to be the main conductor of the entire build up. It really works when they are able to bait teams into pressing them and use their three-man combinations to play through the opponent's press. However, the one team that gave them trouble was Nottingham Forest, which sat in a very compact defensive shape and didn't let Liverpool play through the middle.
Bologna plays in that exact same manner, so this match could be much more difficult than it appears. They are still looking to play direct when the opportunity is there, but they struggle when teams don't allow them to get out in those transition breaks.
The biggest change for Liverpool has come defensively. They are much more structured and disciplined out of possession than they were under Klopp. They are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack.
It's been working so far. They have only conceded 4.5 expected goals in their six Premier League matches and likely won't even allow Bologna to create anything in this match.
Bologna Preview
This isn't the team that finished fifth in Serie A last year, but isn't significantly different either. Losing Motta, star striker Joshua Zirkzee and their best defender, Riccardo Calafiori, has really hurt and the team is struggling under the new manager.
Italiano did a masterful job with Fiorentina in Europe, bringing them to back to back Europa Conference League finals and his style of play isn’t a whole lot different than what Bologna were already doing. He wants his teams to build out of the back in a 3-2 or 4-2 shape and they were really effective, getting the ball into teams' final third and controlling matches. Fiorentina had the best field tilt in Serie A and was also third in xThreat.
While having good field tilt, xThreat and possession numbers is great, it's only relevant if it results in your team creating high quality chances. That was a problem for Italiano at Fiorentina because they had the lowest xG per shot in Serie A, oftentimes settling for shots from outside the box. The same thing is happening at Bologna so far — they've only been able to create 6.4 non-penalty expected goals in their first six matches.
Liverpool vs. Bologna Prediction
Bologna was as solid as it comes defensively under Motta last season. Italiano has a little bit of a different philosophy in wanting his teams to press high, but early on in his tenure, he's maintained that solid defensive structure. It's what is needed in this match because Bologna are without a doubt going to come to Anfield with the mindset of walking away with a point.
They are capable defensively to do exactly what Nottingham Forest was able to do to Liverpool, but their offense is severely limited because they aren't the type of team to hit the opponent quick in transition, so the pace of this match is likely going to be really slow, as I would expect Slot to try and have as much control as possible.
Liverpool matches have gone under the opening total in all six of their Premier League matches, as the books are slowly adjusting to their new style of play under Slot. I only have 2.6 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Under 3.5 goals at -140.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-140 via ESPN Bet)
