Manchester City are somehow the betting public's favorite pick to be relegated from the Premier League this season.
That's despite having the most talented squad in club football — and on the backs of four straight Premier League titles, including six of the last seven.
So why is this phenomenon taking place?
The Case For City to be Relegated
Casual bettors are banking on punitive action from soccer authorities that may result in a substantial point deduction for Manchester City.
City has been embroiled in several financial scandals stemming from accusations that the team has altered accounting in order to pay more for talent. Financial Fair Play regulations limit how much teams can spend relative to income and other factors — Man City has been accused of cooking those books.
City's financial regulation charges are expected to be finalized by the end of the season, which could result in a massive point deduction or even banishment from the Premier League.
The team was banned from the Champions League for two seasons in 2020 for similar violations, though that verdict was eventually overturned later that year by the court of arbitration for sport.
So, while City are a virtual guarantee to finish in the top four — which they've done every season since 2010 — that's without a potential points penalty looming. And bettors are trying to capitalize.
Manchester City Odds to Be Relegated
| Team | BetMGM | ESPN BET |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester City | -250 | -250 |
| Ipswich Town | -120 | -130 |
| Southampton | -120 | -125 |
| Everton | +200 | +230 |
| Nottingham Forest | +275 | +275 |
| Wolverhampton | +333 | +300 |
| Fulham | +550 | +375 |
| Bournemouth | +650 | +600 |
| Brentford | +650 | +600 |
| Crystal Palace | +800 | +900 |
| Manchester City | +1000 | +750 |
| West Ham | +2000 | +1500 |
| Brighton | +2500 | +2000 |
| Chelsea | +2500 | +2000 |
Odds are as of Tuesday afternoon and include teams with odds less than 100-1.
If a points deduction were to take place, all bets would be final based on the eventual standings. If City is banned from the Premier League, it's up to your sportsbook's house rules, but most all major American sportsbooks would void wagers in this instance.
That means only the possibility of a points deduction is baked into the market — not a full ban.
At BetMGM, City to be relegated is the most popular wager in the market and the sportsbook's largest liability.
Man City (+1000) has over 24% of all tickets, ahead of any other team, including the favorites to be relegated in Ipswich Town (-120) and Leicester City (-250). City's odds have fallen from its opening at +1600 to its current mark at +1000 on account of the action.
And at ESPN BET, Man City to be relegated also has the most bets and handle. Those odds have fallen from +1500 to +750 in just over a week's time despite no palpable changes to the investigation or standings.
