Mexico vs Jamaica Odds
| Mexico Odds | -220 |
| Jamaica Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130o / +100u) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings | |
Mexico and Jamaica meet for a crucial match in Group B.
Mexico is bringing a younger generation to Copa America with a lot of the older names most would recognize being left off the roster. However, it's still a very talented Mexican squad that can make a run in this tournament. They've beaten Jamaica three times over the past three years, so they will be well positioned to get another win here.
Jamaica beat Canada over two legs to qualify for Copa America, but they come in with a bit of turmoil. Some of their best players are either coming off injuries or are flat out refusing to play for the national team. On top of that, their results and underlying numbers have been subpar at best, so they are not in a good position coming into this match against Mexico.
Let's dive into my Mexico vs. Jamaica pick and preview for Saturday, June 22.
Mexico
Things are changing for Mexico, the names that you once knew like Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lazano, and Guillermo Ochoa were left off the roster, as they are trying a more youthful approach to this tournament.
The reality is those three guys have been way past their prime for a number of years, so if it wasn’t this tournament, it was going to be the next one. With that being said, there is still a lot of talent on this Mexican side with the likes of West Ham’s Edinson Alvarez and Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez, but most of their team plays domestically in Liga MX.
Playing in CONCACAF there are a lot of instances where Mexico faces extremely passive low blocks, so they’re experienced enough to break down low blocks. What often happens is they will build up in a 3-1 structure with the midfielders in half space dropping deep in build up to create a passing triangle with Edinson Alvarez as the holding midfielder.
Since September of 2021, they are averaging 1.63 xG per 90 minutes against CONCACAF teams. Last summer they were incredibly impressive at the Gold Cup, winning the competition and creating 11.6 expected goals in their six matches.
Defensively, they will usually set up in a 4-4-2 when playing against better competition trying to stay very compact to not allow teams to play through the middle. Having Alvarez as the centerpiece in the middle with his ball stopping ability really does make it hard for teams to play through them. Even in the CONCACAF Nations League finals, they held the United States under one expected goal and also held Brazil in a friendly to 1.16 expected goals.
Jamaica
Jamaica may have some players with Premier League experience like Michail Antonio, Demari Gray, and Ethan Pinnock, but the reality is that the squad as a whole really lacks talent.
The other aspect is they've been putting up god awful underlying numbers for the better part of three years. Since September of 2021, Jamaica has a -0.94 xGD per 90 minutes and it all comes down to when they have to play Canada, the United States, or Mexico they do not have the talent to match them. Against those three countries, they have a -13.3 xGD in 10 matches.
In addition to that, their best player Leon Bailey is refusing to play for the national team, despite being selected to play in this tournament. Per transfermarkt.com, Jamaica's squad value is $93 million, Leon Bailey makes up $42 million of that and is without a doubt their best attacking player.
Jamaica will typically set up in a 5-4-1 low defensive block, but really are not that effective in it and Mexico has easily created chances against it in all three of their previous meetings. Plus, if you get Jamaica into a negative game state, things tend to snowball for them when they can't just sit back in a low defensive block.
Mexico vs. Jamaica
Prediction
Because they struggled against Honduras, needing to overcome a two goal deficit to qualify for Copa America and the fact that they lost 2-0 to the United States in the Nations League final, the stock on Mexico is a tad low. However, over the past three years, Mexico has been outstanding. They have a +0.91 xGD per 90 minutes and under Jaime Lozano they have a lot of tactical versatility.
In the three meetings since September of 2021, Mexico has beaten Jamaica in all three meetings and has a +4.96 xGD against them.
I have Mexico projected at -318, so I love the value on them at -154.
Pick: Mexico ML (-209 via bet365)
