AC Milan vs Newcastle Odds
| AC Milan Odds | +275 |
| Newcastle Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
The second knockout spot in Group F of the Champions League — better known as the group of death — will be decided on Wednesday, as Newcastle host AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund host PSG. Dortmund have already clinched one of the two places in the knockout round, and PSG could join them in the round of 16 with a win in the concurrent match.
However, if PSG were to drop points, the door is cracked open for both Newcastle and Milan to advance to the knockout round. Newcastle would advance with a win and a PSG draw or loss, while Milan move on with a win and a PSG loss to Dortmund.
Even if neither of these teams advance to the knockouts, they'll be also playing for their European lives, as the third place club will move to the Europa League knockout stage. Both teams prefer to play a more conservative in possession style, but that's not really an option in this match. Given the decline in both teams' defenses, this match should be open and full of goal scoring opportunities on Wednesday.
Here is my Newcastle vs AC Milan prediction in my latest Champions League preview.
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Newcastle
With the exception of their home match against Manchester United, Newcastle have conceded at least one expected goal in each of their seven matches since the injury crisis began at the club. Now that the Magpies are playing without Nick Pope, Sven Botman and Dan Burn, the replacements have led to significant regression defensively.
In five matches in the Champions League this year, Newcastle have allowed 10.4 xGA in total. Only Red Star Belgrade, Young Boys and Benfica have conceded more expected goals in the entire competition than Newcastle. They've only scored five goals in total and four of them have come at home, where they do have considerably better underlying numbers overall. In the Premier League, the Magpies still rank fourth in expected goals created and goals scored.
The Magpies are pretty healthy in attack and are still creating chances at a solid clip overall going forward. They're sure to get opportunities on the break to attack forward at home here since both clubs have to win this match to have any chance of advancing to the knockout stage.
AC Milan
Milan will have top attacking player Rafael Leao back in the lineup for this match after he returned to training, and few players in the world are more valuable to their club than Leao is to this Milan side. Leao leads Milan in passes into the penalty area with 17 (next highest is 15) and he leads Milan in carries into the box with 28 (next highest is also 15).
He has eight more successful take-ons than any other player in the side despite missing a few matches with injury. His likely matchup is Kieran Trippier on the Newcastle right flank, who has made a handful of individual errors of late and has cost the Newcastle defense multiple goals in each game.
Milan had solid defensive numbers in the past because they could play extremely passively, not press and not commit many numbers forward. As they've had to be more aggressive in the Champions League because of situation and in tactics without Leao, the mediocrity of the defense has gotten exposed. Milan have conceded at least 1.3 xGA in nine of their last 10 matches.
When they tried to press more against PSG and Dortmund, the holes in transition defense and the lack of true midfield ball winning was exposed. Ismael Bennacer is one of the best ball winners when he's fit, but he hasn't played this season. PSG produced tons of chances in both matches and Dortmund scored twice and created 1.8 xGA.
Newcastle vs AC Milan
Prediction
When these two sides met at the beginning of the group stage in Milan, the game state and situation enabled both clubs to play out their preferred style. Newcastle ceded possession to the opponent, played very conservative and tried to hit Milan on the break. Milan didn't send a ton of numbers forward, remained rock solid defensively and still dominated the match. Milan created a lot of chances, but never found the break through and the match finished 0-0 with 2.2 xG in total.
As these two teams have tried to be more aggressive and dealt with defensive injuries, the numbers on both defenses have cratered since then. A draw isn't good for either club, so if it's 1-1 late, expect a lot of chance taking at both ends. Even though the total is priced at the same number it was in September in Milan, I'm betting over 2.5 goals at -140 or better.
