Poland vs Austria Preview | Euro 2024 Picks & Predictions
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Marko Arnautovic.
Poland vs Austria Odds
| Poland Odds | +275 |
| Austria Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -108 / -114 |
Poland and Austria meet for their second match in Group D. Looking at the standings, both teams have yet to secure a point, making this match critical for their chances of advancing to the knockout stage.
Poland had a promising start in their first match against the Netherlands, taking an early 1-0 lead with a technically sound header from Adam Buksa. However, they couldn't maintain their advantage, as Cody Gakpo equalized 10 minutes later and Wout Weghorst scored the decisive goal in the 83rd minute, resulting in a 2-1 loss for Poland.
Similarly, Austria showed resilience against France but ultimately succumbed to a very unfortunate deflection off Max Wöber’s header, leading to a 1-0 defeat for Austria.
Let's dive into my preview for the Poland vs Austria match.
Poland
Looking at Poland’s previous match against the Netherlands through a critical lens, their 1-2 loss offers little for critics to praise. However, Cody Gakpo’s equalizer resulted from a shot taken outside the box, which deflected off Bartosz Salamon, redirecting the ball away from Wojciech Szczęsny's dive. Despite Poland’s generally solid defensive performance, conceding two goals overshadowed their efforts. One of which was deserved, while the other was rather unfortunate.
Poland were also without their world class striker Robert Lewandowski, who is likely to miss the upcoming game against Austria. This absence is significant, but comparing Poland’s play in this match to their previous World Cup games with Lewandowski, it’s evident that his absence may not be the decisive factor if they were to lose.
Despite this setback, Poland have shown remarkable promise in recent matches. Their defense has been relatively robust, with Poland recording a clean sheet in 50% of their last 10 matches. Additionally, Poland have proven to be a resilient team; they have recovered from a goal down to secure a result in 40% of their games over the past year. Furthermore, the team has an average possession rate of 55% in recent fixtures, indicating their ability to control the game effectively.
Poland's real attacking threat lies on the flanks with the exceptional pace of full-backs Nicola Zalewski and Przemyslaw Frankowski. This speed could pose significant problems for Austria's midfield, which lacks the agility to counter quick transitions. Poland’s reliance on their flanks is underscored by their successful execution of 75% of their counterattacks through the wings in their recent matches. This tactical advantage could be crucial in outpacing and outmaneuvering Austria’s defense.
Austria
Taking a look at Austria, this is a team that I am pretty fond of when selecting an underdog to go far in the tournament. Their previous match against France was heartbreaking as they played a good game and have a lot to be proud of. Holding off a team like France while only conceding one goal – an own goal – should leave Austria optimistic about the rest of their fixtures.
The true edge that Austria have over most teams in the tournament, especially Poland, is their midfield. Austria’s midfield, featuring versatile players like Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer, is adept at controlling the tempo of the game. This has translated into an average possession rate of 57%, slightly higher than Poland's. Additionally, Austria’s midfielders excel in pressing and regaining possession quickly, averaging 13 interceptions per match, which could disrupt Poland's build-up play and counterattacks.
Taking a look at the offense, Austria's attack, led by players such as Marko Arnautović and Michael Gregoritsch, has been productive, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game in their recent fixtures. Austria have also demonstrated a strong set-piece capability, with 30% of their goals in the last 12 months coming from corners or free kicks. This could be a key factor against a Polish defense that has occasionally struggled with aerial threats.
Poland vs Austria
Prediction
After a promising performance against arguably the best team in the tournament, it’s difficult to discount Austria's chances. Their midfield versatility and efficiency, combined with their dynamic attack, are likely to pose significant challenges for the Polish defense all at even money.
Pick: Austria ML (+100 via DraftKings)
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