Shakhtar Donetsk vs Porto Odds
| Shakhtar Donetsk Odds | +550 |
| Porto Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -105 |
Porto and Shakhtar meet for a crucial match that will decide who finishes in second place in Group H.
The Portuguese side's loss to Barcelona means that they cannot win this group and can only finish in second place. All they need is a draw and they are through to the round of 16. Porto beat Shakhtar pretty handily 3-1 on the opening day of the group stage, but for one of the more consistent defensive low blocks across Europe, this is a position in which they thrive.
Shakhtar are in a position to potentially get to the round of 16, but they will need to pull off the upset in Portugal. For a club that has been displaced for years now because of the ongoing war in Ukraine – having to play their home matches in Germany – this would be one of the better sports stories of the season.
Here is my Porto vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction.
Porto
I really don’t see a scenario where Porto don't play for a draw. Their 4-4-2 low block set up is perfect for a match like this where they will hand the ball to Shakhtar and dare them to break them down. Even if Shakhtar are unable to, I don’t really see a scenario where Porto send a ton of numbers forward in transition, as by nature they are a very conservative team.
Additionally, their defensive numbers in Portugal are nowhere near where they have been in years past. They are only allowing 0.94 xG per 90 minutes, but if you compare that to the last two seasons they’ve been around 0.70.
Not only have the defensive numbers gone up domestically, but their offensive numbers have taken a significant dip. Last season in the Portuguese Primiera Liga they averaged 1.92 npxG per 90 minutes, but this season they are at 1.44. There are a couple reasons for that. First, the front two of Taremi and Evanilson haven't put up the production numbers that they did last year. Both were over a 0.60 xG per 90 minute scoring rate in 2022-23, but this season both are under 0.45. Secondly, they don't have consistent supplier to get the front two forwards the ball. Otavio last season was that guy averaging 0.31 xAssists and 3.7 passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes, but he's now in the Saudi League.
Shakhtar Donetsk
In that first meeting, Shakhtar were under a different manager and they were without both of their starting center backs, not exactly an ideal scenario. Outside of that game, Shakhtar have been pretty good during this group stage. They have been solid in the Ukrainian Premier League, putting up a +0.81 xGD, and they have shown that they can be deadly in transition. Porto are mainly a transition based team, so this match actually could suit them very well.
Their second match against Barcelona in Hamburg is the reason they are in this position right now. They completely stifled one of the best build up and offensive teams in the world holding them to just 0.9 xG and on shot on target despite Barcelona having 67.3% of the ball and tilting the field on them at close to 90%.
Marino Pusic took over as manager right before the first match against Barcelona. He recently had been an assistant at Feyenoord under Arne Slot, so the style of play that he brought to Ukraine has been that of high intensity and high pressing. He's won four of his first six matches in charge domestically, which included a massive away win at Dynamo Kiev.
Shakhtar will have to be the ones on the front foot in this match trying to dominate possession and break down Porto's low block, but with their main two starting defenders healthy for this meeting, they will have a much better time defending when Porto do break in transition.
Porto vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Prediction
Given the scenario that Porto are in where they only need a draw to move onto the round of 16 and that by nature they are a very conservative by nature, I think they are going to hand the ball to Shakhtar and dare them to break down their low block.
Even if Porto decide to send numbers forward on the counter, they've lost their best assist man in Otavio and haven't found a replacement for him, which is a big reason why Taremi and Evanilson's production numbers in front of goal are down.
Shakhtar are used to dominating possession and facing low blocks domestically in Ukraine, so this will be nothing new for them. They may not be able to break down Porto's low block, but I find it hard to believe that Porto are going to be very aggressive sending numbers forward on the counter.
Therefore, I like the value on Shakhtar +1 at +120.
