Portugal vs. France Odds
| Portugal Odds | +275 |
| France Odds | +117 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -157) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The group stage of Euro 2020 wraps up on Wednesday as Portugal and France meet in Romania to conclude play in Group F, better known as the group of death. France has already booked its place in the knockout stage with four points, but will want to win this game and secure an easier path in the knockout stage.
Portugal clinches a spot in the knockouts with a win, draw or loss by one or two goals. They'll want to avoid a three-goal loss, which could see them knocked out of the tournament after a 4-2 loss to Germany in Munich last match.
With both teams having one eye on the knockout stage and being defense-first teams, there's value in backing the prop both teams to score no.
Portugal Need to Shore up Defense
Portugal's three goal flurry at the end of the game against Hungary saved them from needing a result against the defending World Cup champions on Wednesday. Their goal difference should be enough to advance, but their defensive performance against Germany was concerning.
Portugal allowed 2.2 expected goals to Germany and that doesn't include the high-danger plays that led to the two own goals. They had no answer for Robin Gosens down the left wing, as Portugal's right back Nelson Semedo underwhelmed and was unable to mark Gosens. The Portugal wingers didn't track back and the result was chance after chance out wide.
Fortunately for Portugal, France's attack comes down the middle for the most part. France's fullbacks don't really get forward, and they don't have an incentive to win this matchup.
Portugal will be in damage control if they do fall behind and will constantly have to be aware of France's abilities on the counter to prevent the French from hanging a crooked scoreline against them.
French Set to Face Different Kind of Opponent
Don't read too much into France's 1-1 draw with Hungary. It was a sandwich spot for the French after a big win against Germany and the French won the game comfortably on expected goals.
They didn't create a ton of chances and shots from open play, but they were expected to be on the front foot, which they won't be in most of their matches in this tournament. However, in this match, France will have the majority of the possession and the onus will be on them to go win this game if they want to try to win the group.
Because Portugal will settle for the draw, they're going to clog the middle of the park and force France's two center backs playing as fullbacks to create chances from width. Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez are decent defensively out wide, but neither offers much going forward.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see the French rotate some players in the second half to prepare for the knockout stage, which they have already clinched. Elite frontrunners and questionable coming from behind, France is the ideal team to take in this spot with a "both teams to score: no" prop.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The game theory on this match sets up to be a low-scoring event with neither team trying to lose it and Portugal trying to keep margins down. Neither team is built to play from behind and both have struggled from behind in this tournament thus far.
France doesn't have the width to trouble Portugal in the wide areas and create as many chances as Germany did. And if they do get ahead, no team in the world is better at protecting leads than France.
Pick: Both Teams to Score No (-120 or better)
