Everton vs. Crystal Palace Odds
| Everton Odds | -110 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +330 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as Thursday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The Premier League relegation battle is down to three teams, with either Leeds United, Everton or Burnley set to be relegated to the Championship after Sunday’s final day of the matches.
The Toffees are the least likely of the three to be relegated based on their position in the table and can secure safety with a home victory Thursday against Crystal Palace.
The Eagles, who have been a difficult side to beat all year in the English top flight, should be in the top half of the table based on their underlying expected-goals numbers. Compare this to Everton, which has won two of its last four games, but has the fifth-worst goal difference in the league.
The Toffees had a golden opportunity to secure safety with a win against Brentford, but they tossed away an early lead at home via a red card and three subsequent goals conceded. Everton closed at -110 moneyline odds despite being the worse team all year. And yet again, the Toffees are odds-on favorites to win this match despite facing a clearly better opponent.
Markets overpricing teams in must-win situations against clubs with nothing to play for is a common occurrence at the end of the season, and one that I am frequently going to play against. Palace is aiming for a top-half finish and has shown no signs of preparing for the offseason in its recent matches.
Everton Still Not Out of Relegation Woods
The Toffees’ main issue this season has been injuries that have taxed an already thin squad and left them playing substandard EPL lineups far too often. Everton had finally been getting healthy in recent weeks and seen some improved performances from it, but the injuries are piling up again.
The Toffees since lost Yerry Mina, the club's top center back, and might also be without Ben Godfrey, who would replace him next to Michael Keane in the backline. Jarrad Branthwaite picked up a start given the center-back injury crisis, but his red card means he’s is suspended for this match as well.
The injury issues don't end on defense, as Fabian Delph is unlikely to appear and might not be ready for the weekend against Arsenal, either. Delph had added some much needed ball winning ability that has been lacking. Given Palace's ability to pressure the ball and control midfield, it will be difficult for Everton to produce the sustained possession in dangerous areas.
If the Toffees are chasing a late goal, they'd normally go to Salomon Rondon off the bench, but his red card against Brentford means he's out for the season. He's not a huge loss, but every piece counts for the Toffees' already thin squad.
Crystal Palace Looking to Finish Strong
When you consider Crystal Palace's preseason point total was 36.5, the Eagles — along with Brentford — have been the biggest over-performer relative to preseason expectations. Just pure xG difference puts Palace ahead of West Ham United, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester United, despite all four sides being ahead of it in the league table.
One storyline with the Eagles most of the season has been its huge home and away splits. Their attack has struggled to create chances away from Selhurst Park, where they've created 0.91 xG per 90 minutes. That is fourth worst in the entire league.
However, the defense has traveled wherever it has been this year. The defense is fifth in xG allowed away from home and fifth best at home. Palace has become an excellent ball stopping team, which was a major problem in years past under Hodgson. It's not just that Palace doesn't concede big scoring chances, but it doesn’t allow shots or balls into the penalty area as well.
The Eagles are top five in box entries allowed, seventh in allowing progressive actions and apply a lot of pressure to the ball. This should all bother Everton, whose midfield has nowhere near as much quality without Delph in the middle.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projection for this match makes Crystal Palace a toss-up on the road. I understand Everton has extra motivation to win and avoid relegation, but the same was true in its last two matches against Watford and Brentford, who are worse teams than Palace.
In those two matches, Everton was a -180 road favorite at Watford and drew 0-0, and then was a -110 home favorite and lost outright to Brentford in a 3-2 defeat. Relegation quality teams sometimes are able to improve their performance to fight off the drop to the second division, but more often than not, the 30-plus game sample of them being a bad team is far more predictive.
Everton could win, but it’s very overpriced to do so. Given the injuries and Palace's expected control of midfield, I'm betting the visitor to get a result.
Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-125 or better)
