Palace vs. Leicester Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Saturday’s Premier League Match

Crystal Palace at Leicester City Odds

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Two of the Premier League's biggest over-performers have recently hit poor stretches of form entering Saturday’s clash at the King Power Stadium: Leicester and Palace have a combined one win in seven total matches since the restart, and the Foxes are now in danger of slipping out of the top-four race.

Leicester City is winless since the Premier League restart, drawing twice and losing twice over its last four matches. The Foxes’ offense has dried up with top goalscorer Jamie Vardy nabbing two goals over his last 14 appearances. However, Leicester has quietly seen a recent uptick in performances, even if the results haven’t necessarily matched up with them.

Palace's terrible form in front of goal presents an opportunity to buy low on the Foxes and get good value on Leicester in a must-win spot at home.

Leicester outplayed both Everton and Chelsea for large stretches of their last two matches, but the Foxes spotted Everton two early goals and couldn’t convert its chances against Chelsea.

It’s really been two separate seasons for Leicester: From August to December, they won 12 of their first 16 matches, drawing two and losing two. Their rock-solid defense combined with an in-form Jamie Vardy and they vastly over-performed expected goals (xG). Since January, though, they’ve won just three of 12 matches as the goals have dried up and xG regression hit hard.

Now Leicester sits in third, clinging to a one-point lead over Chelsea and a three-point lead over Manchester United and Wolves.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The reality is that Leicester weren’t as good as they appeared early, and they’re not as bad as they seem since. The Foxes are sixth in xG difference — much better than Palace, who have vastly over-performed their xG stats this season, too. Only Liverpool and Newcastle have a larger expected points difference than Palace.

Palace are dead-last in expected goals for, and 19th in goals scored. They’ve gathered points through a series of 1-0 wins and fortunate defending that they have conceded more goals. The Eagles have one win over a top-half team: An upset of Manchester United back in September after a David de Gea howler in goal.

Wilfried Zaha has been largely ineffective in attack this season, target man Christian Benteke has just one goal, and leading goal-scorer Jordan Ayew (nine goals) has generated 0.24 xG per 90 minute — quite poor for a team’s leading attacker.

Given Palace’s inabilities to score. I’m expecting Leicester to nab at least one, maybe two, against an overrated Palace defense. Palace have conceded plenty of great chances from both corners and in open play and haven’t punished them.

The Foxes aren’t a team I’m generally looking to bet on down the final stretch, but this price is too good to pass up.